Citi predicts three trading scenarios for "Tariff Day": the overall probability of decline is greater than that of increase

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MarsBit
03-30
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Huoxing Finance News, on March 30, Citibank's latest report summarized three main scenarios for U.S. tariff policies on April 2 and their corresponding market impacts: First, merely announcing reciprocal tariffs would have a limited market reaction; second, reciprocal tariffs plus VAT could cause the dollar index to potentially rise 50-100 basis points immediately, with global stock markets potentially declining; third, including industry-specific tariffs in addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT might trigger an even more intense market reaction. The report noted that after the S&P 500 experienced its worst first quarter since 2020, analysts widely warned that the potential for further decline is greater than potential growth. Some analyses also pointed out that future tariffs and retaliatory actions are crucial, stating that "the market reaction on April 2 will largely depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs and the speed of other countries' responses to reciprocal tariffs." (Wall Street News)

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