Odaily星球日报讯 二级交易员挖矿小企鹅在社交平台发文表示，结合 K 线走势、市场结构及政策面潜在影响，当前对中期现货市场持谨慎态度，四五月或有回调至前低 7.65 万美元下方的可能，预期区间为 7.1 万–7.4 万美元，届时将视情况寻找现货入场位置。 他指出，美联储当前趋于谨慎，可能延后原先口头承诺的 2025 年两次降息，而特朗普在美股调整中的政策倾向也需持续关注。其认为，若二季度出现较大幅度回调，则三季度有望迎来修复行情。

Odaily星球日报讯 二级交易员挖矿小企鹅在社交平台发文表示，结合 K 线走势、市场结构及政策面潜在影响，当前对中期现货市场持谨慎态度，四五月或有回调至前低 7.65 万美元下方的可能，预期区间为 7.1 万–7.4 万美元，届时将视情况寻找现货入场位置。他指出，美联储当前趋于谨慎，可能延后原先口头承诺的 2025 年两次降息，而特朗普在美股调整中的政策倾向也需持续关注。其认为，若二季度出现较大幅度回调，则三季度有望迎来修复行情。

观点：四五月或探至7.1万–7.4万美元区间

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: A second-tier trader, the mining Little Penguin, posted on social platforms stating that based on the K-line trend, market structure, and potential policy impacts, he currently maintains a cautious attitude towards the mid-term spot market. There might be a pullback to below $76,500 in April and May, with an expected range of $71,000-$74,000, and he will look for spot entry positions accordingly. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve is currently cautious and may postpone the two rate cuts originally verbally promised in 2025, and Trump's policy tendencies during the US stock market adjustment also need continuous attention. He believes that if a significant pullback occurs in the second quarter, a recovery market may be expected in the third quarter.

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: A second-tier trader, the mining Little Penguin, posted on social platforms stating that based on the K-line trend, market structure, and potential policy impacts, he currently maintains a cautious attitude towards the mid-term spot market. There might be a pullback to below $76,500 in April and May, with an expected range of $71,000-$74,000, and he will look for spot entry positions accordingly. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve is currently cautious and may postpone the previously verbally promised two rate cuts in 2025, and Trump's policy tendencies during the US stock market adjustment also need continuous attention. He believes that if a significant pullback occurs in the second quarter, a recovery market may be expected in the third quarter.

View: May reach the range of 71,000-74,000 US dollars in April and May

<Odaily> Planet News: Capital Flows posted on X platform that the decline in US stocks is affecting Bitcoin and crypto sector listed companies (such as Coinbase and Strategy), with Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets increasingly converging, but still positioned at the far end of the risk curve. Capital must flow "outward" from lower-risk assets and enter the crypto market to drive Bitcoin's rise. If Bitcoin is to rebound to the $100,000 range, it requires a sustained change in macro liquidity, which has not yet occurred. If macro liquidity cannot be continuously adjusted, with the increase in implied volatility premium, the next stock market downturn may pull Bitcoin down to the $72,000-$75,000 range.

Analysis: If the US stock market falls again, BTC may fall to the $75,000 range. Returning to $100,000 requires a lasting change in macro liquidity

On March 31st, according to 4E monitoring, last week's published data increased market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook, with growing indications that U.S. consumer confidence has significantly declined and spending has reduced due to concerns about tariff-driven inflation, and long-term inflation expectations have risen. U.S. stocks plummeted on a weekly basis, crushing the previous week's strong rebound. The S&P 500 index fell 1.53% cumulatively, the Dow Jones fell 0.96%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.59%. The Magnificent 7 tech stock index dropped 2.95% last week.

The crypto market followed U.S. stocks in a volatile downward trend. Bitcoin started the week surging close to $89,000 but then retreated under pressure from Trump's tariff news, and further declined after Friday's PCE data. Before this article's deadline, it was reported at $81,884, down 4.46% in the past 7 days. Other mainstream tokens generally declined, with Ethereum breaking below $1,800 and approaching new lows. Market sentiment remains low and may continue to be under pressure before Trump's tariff actions become clear.

In major foreign exchange markets, the U.S. dollar index oscillated and fell 0.05% last week. Safe-haven pressures suppressed risk assets, with geopolitical situations supporting some bottom levels. Oil prices rose about 2% last week, and gold continued its four-week winning streak, reaching a new historical high with spot gold breaking $3,100.

Last week's weak data reignited economic concerns, and financial markets broadly declined. With Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" approaching on April 2nd, market nerves are tense and risk-averse sentiment is rising. Additionally, the U.S. March non-farm employment report will be released this Friday night, followed by Powell's speech. The Federal Reserve remained unchanged in March, and the market anticipates Powell's further views on the U.S. economy, inflation, and the impact of Trump's tariff policies to find new clues about the Fed's monetary policy direction and provide more reliable guidance for April's market trends.

<eeee.com> as a financial trading platform supporting cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange assets, recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an 8% annual yield, providing potential hedging options for investors. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: Tariffs and inflation squeezed together, risk aversion heats up, this week's focus is on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" and non-agricultural data

By the end of March 2025, the global financial markets experienced a severe turbulence. The U.S. stock market suffered a "Black Friday" on March 28, with the S&P 500 index dropping 1.97%, the Nasdaq index plummeting 2.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 715 points, a decline of 1.69%. This downturn quickly spread to the cryptocurrency market, with BTC falling from $84,000 in the afternoon of March 29 to $81,565 in the early morning of March 31, Ethereum (ETH) dropping to a recent low of $1,767, and Solana (SOL) declining at 18:00 on March 30...

View: May reach the range of 71,000-74,000 US dollars in April and May

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