According to ChainCatcher, citing Coindesk, analyst James Van Straten stated that the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to 0.02193, reaching its lowest level in nearly five years. This indicates that Ethereum has fallen 39% compared to Bitcoin this year, marking the first time Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin in the 12 months following a Bitcoin halving.
In previous Bitcoin halving cycles, Ethereum typically outperformed Bitcoin in the first year after the halving. However, this time the situation is completely different, with the ETH/BTC ratio declining by over 50% in a year. This is one of Ethereum's worst performances relative to Bitcoin since the third quarter of 2019, when the ratio dropped to 0.0164, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 46%. According to analysis, the reasons may include:
- Deteriorating macroeconomic environment: Trade war threats driven by tariffs, persistent high inflation, and rising global bond yields have made investors more inclined towards assets with stronger liquidity and lower risk.
- Enhanced safe-haven attributes of Bitcoin: In the crypto market, Bitcoin is viewed as a safer choice compared to Ethereum, similar to gold's position in traditional markets.
