When will Bitcoin’s decline end? Let’s wait and see if regulation breaks the ice and macroeconomics improves
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Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, the crypto industry continues to benefit from a favorable political environment, with the Trump administration pushing for a clearer regulatory framework, and institutional participation enthusiasm continues to grow.
Bitcoin's performance in the first quarter of 2025 hit a near-decade low, despite initially surging to a historical high of $109,590 at the beginning of the year, closing the quarter with nearly an 11% decline. The initial market optimism about Trump's potential election and pro-cryptocurrency policies quickly evolved into a textbook "sell the fact" scenario as substantial regulatory reforms remained delayed. Since the historical peak, Bitcoin dropped to as low as $77,041, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 29%, and has since been oscillating in the trading range of $78,000 to $88,000.
However, the market structure remains favorable for Bitcoin. Despite a significant drop in total cryptocurrency market value, Bitcoin's dominance has risen to over 61%, indicating that funds are rotating from higher-risk Altcoins to Bitcoin in an environment of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana have fallen 35%-50% from their cycle highs, further strengthening Bitcoin's position as a "reserve asset" in the crypto market.
As the second quarter begins, market price trends remain highly dependent on macroeconomic signals, with Federal Reserve policy moves and ETF fund flows continuing to dominate market direction. Although signs of panic selling by investors have somewhat eased, the market still needs a sufficiently influential catalyst event to form a trend-breaking breakthrough in an environment of continued liquidity tightening.
From a macroeconomic perspective, certain areas of the U.S. economy are showing resilience, such as narrowing trade deficits and increased durable goods spending, but these highlights are overshadowed by deeper structural concerns. Factors such as new tariff policies driving up import costs have accelerated inflation beyond expectations. The core inflation rate rose 0.4% month-on-month in February, the largest monthly increase in over a year, with consumer expectations suggesting inflation may remain high for an extended period.
Meanwhile, economic growth is slowing. Real income growth remains weak when excluding government spending, and service sector spending, a key economic driver, has begun to shrink. Consumer confidence continues to decline, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index falling to a two-year low, with more Americans expecting unemployment to rise. These trends indicate increasing cautious sentiment among households, specifically manifested in continuously rising personal savings rates.
Trade policy remains a core pressure point. Recent tariff increases and market expectations of potential further measures in April and May are prompting businesses and consumers to adjust behavior patterns, including advance purchasing, delaying investments, or reducing hiring. Although the trade deficit narrowed in February, this data follows a surge in imports in January, which may have already been factored into GDP predictions. As a result, first-quarter economic growth is expected to significantly slow down.
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, the crypto industry continues to benefit from a favorable political environment, with the Trump administration pushing for an increasingly clear regulatory framework, and institutional participation enthusiasm continues to grow.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has officially withdrawn lawsuits against three major industry participants: Kraken, ConsenSys, and Cumberland DRW. This move marks a shift from the previous strict enforcement stance to a more collaborative regulatory approach, signaling the regulator's commitment to establishing clear, more constructive rules for the cryptocurrency industry.
To further advance crypto regulation, the SEC's Digital Assets Working Group announced it will host four thematic roundtable meetings between April and June 2025. These meetings will invite industry participants to discuss core issues such as crypto trading regulation, digital asset custody, tokenization, and the future development of decentralized finance. The events will be open to the public, reflecting the SEC's regulatory orientation of promoting open dialogue and enhancing transparency in cryptocurrency policy-making.
Simultaneously, the Trump Media & Technology Group announced a partnership with Crypto.com to launch a series of cryptocurrency-focused ETFs. This move marks the group's official entry into the financial product field, aimed at meeting the growing market demand for digital asset investment tools. Although the plan still requires regulatory approval, if successful, it will significantly enhance the visibility of the Trump Media & Technology Group and Crypto.com in traditional finance.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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