Reading：https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JSmI-YDvbdxXJ1Tud2sK8mly33zh1VmcH8i5wUgSYs0/edit?usp=sharing
TG Channel：https://t.me/SleepinRain
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1. Narrative
Actually, the current token price has nothing to do with the domain of the $GUN project, but I still want to discuss the game narrative. Currently, it's difficult for Web3 narratives to produce major projects. As far as I remember, Binance hasn't listed game spot trading for a long time (excluding TON mini-games, Binance listed $PIXELS $ACE $XAI $SAGA $PORTAL in 2024). However, at least in the short term, the price performance of $GUN will affect the market's mindshare of the game sector.
Unfortunately, the current price performance of $GUN is not particularly beautiful.
If Binance is willing to list game tokens in spot trading, I would boldly recommend $PRIME (a personal preference).
2. The Uniqueness of $GUN
I mentioned before that the initial token circulation during TGE will become increasingly higher. Most projects indeed follow this trend, generally around 20%+ (though some projects have high initial circulation but strong market control, like $MOVE). $GUN goes against this trend, with only 6% initial circulation, using the previous low-circulation, high-FDV approach. This means the $GUN price is very easily manipulated.
The token price will change with the overall market and project party needs.
If the project team wants to promote the game, build positive cash flow (revenue), and use token incentives (costs), they will slightly manage the market (similar to $BERA's approach). If the project team feels the current FDV is within their psychological expectations, they will want to maintain the token price within this range. Based on the unlock information from Binance, validator tokens will be unlocked on September 30, 2025, investor tokens on March 31, 2026, and team tokens on October 2027. Before unlocking, the project team will either do nothing or do some market value management and promote their game. I lean towards the former - because tokens will continue to be unlocked, the money is essentially still in the team's hands. They just need to maintain the price within a certain range.
Personally, I will not intervene with this token in the short term (I won't participate even if there's a short-term rebound, including long and short positions). I'm more inclined to believe that $GUN will perform in July and August this year - if $GUN's price forms a platform, I will pay close attention to potential opportunities on the right side.
