Question One: What Systemic Impacts Will Trump's Broader Tariff Policy Have on Global Stock Markets and Crypto Markets?

The tariff policy to be announced on April 2, 2025 (Eastern Time) is undoubtedly a "watershed event" for the global economic landscape. Based on currently disclosed information, the Trump team may adopt two extreme paths: either a "non-discriminatory tariff" (such as a comprehensive 20% increase) or a "personalized tariff" targeting specific trading partners. Regardless of the final chosen mode, its impact will deeply reconstruct the global asset pricing logic through three core chains: supply chain transmission, inflation pressure, and monetary policy expectations.

Impact on Traditional Stock Markets:

Based on historical experience and current market expectations, if the tariff policy exceeds expectations, US stocks may face a "Davis double kill" risk. Industries highly dependent on global supply chains, such as automobiles, semiconductors, and tech hardware, will be the first to be affected. For example, 60% of auto parts for US manufacturers depend on Mexican imports, and a 25% tariff will directly increase per-vehicle costs by $2,000-$12,000, thereby compressing corporate profit margins and suppressing consumer demand. The Nasdaq index already reacted on March 31, dropping 2.7% in a single day, with Tesla's market value evaporating $37.6 billion, a trend that may be further reinforced after policy implementation.

Transmission Mechanism to Crypto Markets:

Cryptocurrencies, as typical risk assets, are difficult to escape the strong correlation with US stocks (current correlation coefficient 0.78). The liquidity tightening expectations triggered by tariffs will directly suppress market risk appetite.

On March 31, Bitcoin dropped below $82,000, Ethereum fell below $1,800, and network-wide contract liquidations exceeded $300 million, representing a concentrated release of panic sentiment.

More worryingly, the policy may indirectly impact the hardware supply chain of the crypto industry. As China is the core country for mining machine manufacturing, high tariffs could increase mining machine costs by over 18%, further squeezing miner profits and potentially causing computing power migration. However, in the long term, the potential damage to US dollar credit from tariffs might strengthen Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, with whale addresses accumulating 23,000 BTC (worth about $1.8 billion) in the past week, showing institutional positioning during the pullback.

Question Two: What Differentiated Impacts Will Personalized vs. Comprehensive Tariffs Have on the Crypto Market?

Path One: Personalized Tariffs (Targeting Specific Countries/Industries)

If Trump chooses to precisely strike "strategic competitors" (like China) and key industries (such as semiconductors and new energy), market volatility will show structural differentiation.

Taking Bitcoin as an example, its price might experience a V-shaped trend of "panic drop before policy implementation → technical rebound after actual intensity is lower than expected", similar to the 8% intraday fluctuation when the February 2024 tariff policy was announced.

For Altcoins, liquidity may be further devastated.

Path Two: Comprehensive 20% Non-Discriminatory Tariffs

This "nuclear-level" policy will completely disrupt market balance, triggering a systemic liquidity crisis. According to Goldman Sachs' calculations, comprehensive tariffs might cause global trade volume to shrink by $2.3 trillion, with US GDP declining 0.2% long-term. In this scenario, Bitcoin might break below the $76,000 key support level, forming a "spiral decline" with US stocks. Especially in the highly leveraged derivatives market (current Bitcoin contract open interest reaches $32 billion), consecutive liquidations could intensify volatility. At this time, stablecoin (like USDC, Dai) holding proportion needs to be raised to over 30% to avoid liquidation risks in extreme market conditions.

It's worth noting that this path might accelerate attempts to decouple crypto assets from traditional assets—if the US dollar triggers uncontrolled inflation through tariffs, Bitcoin's "resistance to fiat currency depreciation" attributes might be repriced, but this process will necessarily involve violent pain.

Question Three: How Should Retail Investors Reconstruct Their Portfolios to Withstand the Tariff Storm?

During the critical transition from policy vacuum to implementation, retail investors should implement a strategy framework of "defense first, opportunistic counterattack" by adjusting across four dimensions to enhance portfolio resilience:

Risk Exposure Rebalancing

Reduce holdings of interest-rate sensitive assets: Tech stocks (especially hardware companies dependent on overseas supply chains) and high-valuation Altcoins (like AI concept tokens) need reduced allocation.

Increase hedging tools: Gold ETF (GLD) and Bitcoin can be allocated in a 3:7 ratio, using their recent negative correlation to smooth volatility. Stablecoin positions should be maintained at 20%-25% as liquidity reserves.

Cross-Market Arbitrage Opportunity Capture

Supply chain transfer dividends: Watch Mexican ETF (EWW) and crypto mining stocks (like Hut 8 Mining), with the former benefiting from North American supply chain restructuring and the latter potentially triggering computing power premium due to mining machine cost increases.

Tariff exemption speculation: If the policy retains exemption space for allies (like Japan), consider deploying Japanese blockchain-related enterprises, such as Metaplanet

On-Chain Data-Driven Dynamic Adjustment

Monitor whale addresses: Track addresses holding 1000+ BTC via tools like Glasschain. March 31 data shows whale bottom-fishing volume reached 3 times daily average, such signals can serve as left-side trading references.

Derivatives market warnings: When Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates turn negative and positions suddenly increase, it often signals near-term bottom, at which point spot positions can be gradually established.

Policy Event Response Manual

April 2 key node: Set price alerts in advance (BTC ±5%, ETH ±8%), use option strategies to construct a "straddle portfolio" hedging bidirectional risks. If policy intensity is moderate, prioritize adding Bitcoin (below $80,000) and compliant exchange platform coins (like BNB); if unexpectedly escalated, increase gold and US Treasury ETF (TLT) holdings.

Question Four: Bitcoin, Gold, US Stocks - 2025 Ultimate Safe-Haven Asset Showdown

Gold: Reinforcement and Challenges of Traditional Safe-Haven Logic

Gold breaking $3,000/oz in 2025 is primarily driven by geopolitical risk premium and central bank gold-buying wave (29% of central banks plan to increase holdings in the next 12 months).

But two risks need attention: first, if the Fed restarts rate hikes due to inflation pressure, rising real interest rates will suppress gold prices; second, the liquidity risk in the "paper gold" market (90% of London gold is undivided custody) might trigger a run during geopolitical conflicts.

Bitcoin: Difficult Transformation from Risk Asset to "Digital Strategic Reserve"

Despite short-term risk appetite constraints, Bitcoin's long-term value logic is undergoing qualitative change. The Trump administration's proposed "crypto strategic reserve" and institutional holdings by BlackRock (recently adding $145 million BTC) mark its integration into mainstream financial systems.

Compared to gold, Bitcoin's advantages lie in confiscation resistance (private key control) and cross-border liquidity.

US Stocks: Survival Game in High-Valuation Trap

The current S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio (28 times) far exceeds the ten-year average (19 times), and may face a Davis double kill under tariff impact. The performance divergence between defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) and tech stocks will intensify, and investors need to be wary of potential performance landmines during the "FAANG" earnings season. In comparison, although crypto assets are more volatile, their low correlation with traditional assets (dropping below 0.3 during crises) provides new possibilities for portfolio diversification.

Ultimate Choice: Dynamic Allocation Based on Risk Appetite

• Conservative Investors: 70% gold + 20% BTC + 10% cash, utilizing gold's stability to establish a baseline.
• Aggressive Investors: 50% BTC + 30% tech stocks + 20% option hedging, capturing excess returns through volatility.
• Institutional Arbitrage Seekers: Focus on crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), with a 0.91 correlation to BTC, which can amplify trend returns.

Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty

The essence of the tariff storm is the labor pains of global economic order reconstruction. For the crypto market, short-term pain is unavoidable, but the decentralized settlement and censorship-resistant payment needs enabled by blockchain technology will highlight its long-term value in chaotic times. Investors must remember: the real risk is not volatility itself, but responding to volatility in the wrong way. Maintaining discipline and flexibility is the key to finding one's own wealth anchor in the eye of the storm.