Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:
The tariff issue has finally landed, and it can be said to be the most hardcore version expected by the market previously. As discussed before, if this most stringent version truly arrives, the market would certainly calculate the worst-case scenario with these policy figures, which would have a significant market impact.
Now everyone can see that US stock futures have directly plummeted. BTC also dropped sharply after rising, which is the market pricing in the worst-case scenario.
However, Master Chen believes this pricing might not be completely in place, and we still need to wait and see when the market can clear out. After clearing, there might be some good news, and the market could catch its breath.
Additionally, many people are shouting about the Fed cutting rates in June and July, expecting a big market trend. Master Chen still personally believes it's not that simple, and everyone should not forget Japan's rate hike.
The Bank of Japan plans to raise rates in July 2025 and September-October, gradually adjusting rates from the current level to 0.75%, potentially reaching 1.00% by early 2026.
Recall the rate hikes on July 31st last year and January 24th this year, where bulls were essentially buried within a week after each hike, so this risk cannot be ignored.
For instance, around the Fed meeting in early May, the first half of the year's market is unlikely to be as bullish as some KOLs claim. Going short at high points might be more reassuring, because rising is difficult while drops can come suddenly.
Especially from June to July, even if the Fed cuts rates, Japan's rate hike will be causing trouble, so going long should be done cautiously. Last night, many KOLs were shouting about BTC at 91k and 95k, with some even claiming 100k.
How could such a sudden surge be a true bull market? A real rise should be steady, climbing slowly, with each day's close slightly higher than the previous day. Those who liked holding positions and chased long positions without being quick enough are now stuck with several thousand points, right?
Continuing from yesterday's article about Altcoins, after each hot trend, it's always a mess. How many times have people been cut, how many times have they been zeroed out, yet still many people rush in, especially small-capital players who always think they can't get rich with BTC and hope to become overnight millionaires with Altcoins.
Actually, this is a mental trap. Wealth must be accumulated slowly. Sometimes being slower and steadier can ultimately be faster. If you always dream of instant success, you'll likely end up with nothing.
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 85600
Second Resistance: 84400
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 82400
Second Support: 81200
Today's Recommendation:
Since yesterday's breakthrough convergence area has now become a strong resistance, another rise might require more time. The first resistance at 84.4K, where 60-day, 120-day, and 200-day moving averages converge, has a higher probability of pullback.
If intraday breakthrough and stabilization occur in this area, pay attention to the moving average breakthrough confirmation. Instead of expecting a breakthrough, focus on whether the price can gradually raise its low points through horizontal consolidation and slowly digest selling pressure before rising.
The first support at 82.4K is today's formed previous low point and an important short-term support. As a low point formed near the upward trend line, the short-term upward trend line can be considered maintained. Observe whether the price can raise its low points along the trend line and rebound again.
Although BTC experienced a large bearish candle drop, it stopped falling near the upward trend line. Therefore, use the upward trend line and previous low point as reference, and consider ultra-short-term rebound opportunities when prices are low.
When the market rebounds, do not be overly optimistic that this is the bottom. The current market remains unstable, so be wary of profit-taking selling pressure.
4.3 Master Chen's Wave Trading Preparation:
Long Entry Reference: Not recommended currently
Short Entry Reference: Light position short at 84500-85600 range, Target: 82400-81200
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