Viewpoint summary: The latest market pricing of central banks around the world

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ChainCatcher report, according to Jintian's report, the latest market pricing of central banks is as follows:

1. Federal Reserve: Traders are betting that the likelihood of a fourth rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year is close to 50%, up from previous predictions of three cuts.

2. European Central Bank: Traders have increased their rate cut bets, with a 90% possibility of an ECB rate cut in April, potentially cutting rates by 68 basis points this year.

3. Bank of England: Interest rate futures are pricing in a rate cut of about 60 basis points for the remainder of 2025, up from the previous expectation of 54.2 basis points.

4. Reserve Bank of Australia: Bond market pricing has turned dovish, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA in May, with further cuts expected in August and November.

5. Bank of Japan: Bets on early rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have decreased, with swap rates showing only a 9.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in May.

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