Traders on the Kalshi prediction platform currently estimate the probability of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following President Donald Trump's signing of a large-scale tariff order on April 2.
Kalshi uses the standard definition of a recession, which is negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters, according to the US Department of Commerce report.
The recession forecast rate on Kalshi has nearly doubled since March 20 and is now similar to the data from the prediction platform Polymarket, where traders are also betting on a 60% chance of a recession in 2025.
The macroeconomic picture for 2025 became gloomy after President Trump announced comprehensive tariffs, triggering a sell-off in financial markets and raising concerns about a prolonged bear market cycle.
According to the new executive order, all countries will be subject to a basic tax rate of 10%, along with various "reciprocal" tariffs applied to trading partners maintaining import duties on US goods.
Trump's announcement immediately triggered a sell-off in the stock market, wiping out over $5 trillion in market capitalization in just a few days.
Recession fears continue to grow as experts warn that a prolonged trade war could negatively impact the global market and weigh heavily on the prices of risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
Despite the negative market reactions, President Trump remains confident that the new tax policy will strengthen the US economy in the long term and help adjust trade imbalances.
"The market will explode again," Trump said on April 3, believing that the current sell-off is just a necessary adjustment.
Analyst Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that President Trump intentionally caused the market collapse to pressure the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates.
He cited the sharp decline in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, from around 4.66% in January 2025 to 4.00% on April 5, as evidence of a strategy to induce a recession to achieve monetary goals.
President Trump is also increasing pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to promote short-term interest rate cuts.
"This is the perfect time for Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates," Trump wrote on Truth Social on April 4.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should thoroughly research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment choices.
Join Telegram: https://t.me/tapchibitcoinvn
Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/tapchibtc_io
Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tapchibitcoin
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@tapchibitcoinvn
Thach Sanh
