On April 8th, billionaire hedge fund manager and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stated that while market and economic attention to tariffs is important, more profound global issues should not be overlooked. He pointed out that we are currently in a "classic breakdown" stage of monetary, political, and geopolitical order, a situation that might occur only once in a lifetime but has happened multiple times in history.
Dalio suggested not being distracted by short-term events like tariffs, but instead focusing on the interaction of five major forces (economic, political, geopolitical, natural, and technological). Studying similar historical cycles (such as monetary crises) can help predict the future.
"The current changes are part of a historic big cycle, and tariffs are merely a surface phenomenon. The real driving factors are the structural collapse of monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. Understanding the interaction of these forces and learning from historical experiences is key to better navigating the future."