Over the past 24 hours, market trends have fluctuated dramatically with news - from the "90-day suspension" rumor to "debunking fake news" - Bitcoin experienced intense volatility within 24 hours, dropping to a $low, surging to $of $81,200, with an intraday amplitude reaching 9%.
VX: TZ7971
< p the time Bitcoin is temporarily holding at the critical support level of $79,000.
The tariff stick has triggered a chain of retaliation among countries, causing a global financial market crash. Investors are turning their eyes to the Federal Reserve, hoping this key player can intervene to rescue the market.
Will the Federal Reserve, which is highly anticipated, release water to save the market?
Inflation Has Not Subsided, the Federal Reserve Cannot Act Hastily
The Federal Reserve is currently more concerned about another matter - inflation. Data shows that the preferred core inflation indicator (PCE) was still as high as 2.8% in February, far above the 2% target. It is worth worth noting that tariffs may could potentially drive up prices.
In other words, the Federal Reserve now faces a dilemma: lowering interest rates could save the market but might let inflation get further out of control. Not lowering rates could stabilize inflation lead market turbulence or even economic recession.
"If not falling into an economic recession Reserve, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult difficult to solve inflation issues in the short term. term The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future."
The impact of tariffs on inflation is more urgent than their impact on economic growth.
Inflation has put the Federal Reserve in a predicament because inflation pressure persists, and before economic and employment show signs of weakness, the Federal finds it difficult a challenging situation to support the labor market.
If the Federal Reserve worries about inflation expectations getting out of control, just like in 2022, even if the market drops 20%, it will%, shake its determination to maintain a tight policy.
Market judgment echoes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks. He stated last Friday that the Federal Reserve would not rush to respond to market volatility, and officials are obligated to maintain stable inflation expectations. He said interest rates are in a favorable position,, giving officials time to assess the impact of Trump's policies on the economy. Based on current data, the economy remains in good condition, but he did not mention continued stock market decline.
The Market Needs More Than Just a Decline; a Liquidity Crisis Must Emerge
Historically, Federal Reserve officials would take decisive action to stabilize the situation when the market or economy encounters a crisis.
Sometimes, they do not necessarily wait scheduled meeting they might hold emergency meetings and emergency rate cuts to prevent the economy from falling into a severe recession. The most recent example was in March 2020 when the pandemic first broke out.
Besides rate cuts, the Federal Reserve can also use "temporary loan tools". When market funds suddenly become difficult to bliquidity becomes tight Reserve quickly lend money to banks and institutions to of prevent the market from paralysis.
Although global stock markets have recently plummeted, with market value evaporating by trillions of dollars, the financial market pain has not yet shown shown liquidity insufficiency that might lead to Federal Reserve intervention.
Of course, if the the market further loses control, such as the US Treasury market malfunctioning or signs of liquidity exhaustion in other key parts of the financial, prompt the take action.>marketmarket disrucauses financial stability risks, not, I believe not believe the Federal Reserve will intervene at this stage.
If these warning signals do indeed appear, the Federal Reserve is more likely to choose specific loan tools rather than immediately using rate rate cuts. For example, when the pandemic first broke out in 2020, the US Treasury market once fell into panic selling, and Federal launched a-large-scale bond purchase program. Similarly, after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in 2023, they launched an emergency loan mechanism to help banks stabilize.
If financial financial pressure further intensFederal strategy is to directly directly address these issues rather than filling all holes through interest rates.
When macroeconomic fluctuations intensify, US debt liquidity indeed decreases, just like the current situation. When traders are overwhelmed by market activities and cannot maintain their role as intermediaries, market functional obstacles that trigger alarms and require support may occur. However, this situation has not yet happened.
The current market trend is mainly driven by macro factors. This tariff--induced callback is an event-driven decline, not caused by deep economic issues. Just as tariff policies are human-injected variables, when Trump believes he he has obtained sufficient sufficient concfromothers countries, he can similarly withdraw these measures p>In the short term, cryptocurrencies may continue to fluctuate, and market sentiment will fluctuate with the ongoing trade macro conditionsize narratives dominate, or cryptocurrencies re-establish their role as long---ging, growth may follow. Before that market may remain range-bound and respond to macro news.
Bitcoin recently lost the key support level of $79,000 to $80,000 that it successfully defended past month. This support level marks the bottom of the range after the historical highest callback. The next key support support key support is is around $72,000, which was the highest point before the US election Potential changes in Trump's stance or emergency intervention by the Federal Reserve are two factors that might help Bitcoin's rise above $80,000.
中的内签内变。Reserve>过去24小时，市场走势随消息面剧烈起伏，随着关税策节复摇——摆从「90暂缓」传闻到「辟�「「辟�假假消息」，比特币在 24 小时内剧烈震荡，最低触触及 74,436元后急速拉升至 81,200 美元，，日内振幅高达 9%。
