Master's Hot Topic Discussion:
Brothers, first let me tell you today is the lunar 312! Sounds a bit absurd, right? The current market is simply a news-driven market, what does a news-driven market mean?
It means market trends are entirely driven by news, with one piece of news exploding here and another popping up there, making everyone feel uncertain. However, the market has gradually become accustomed to this rhythm and is becoming desensitized.
Since most bad news has basically been released, now we'll see if any good news can emerge before these bad news land. This is a window period, trading is about expectations, and gaming is the process.
How are market tops and bottoms formed? Simply put, it depends on which side can't hold on, when money is burned out, proven by real money.
Look at Nasdaq's 10% daily volatility, liquidity still exists, just waiting for a spark to ignite everyone's enthusiasm.
Speaking of BTC, after breaking 80k last night, it wilted this morning, dropping back to around 74.6k. This rebound is completely cold. It didn't even get a chance to touch 81k, the pace is incredibly fast!
Personally, I think it will likely explore down to the 74-68.8k range, then retrace back to 73.8k, then try around 66.3k, and finally have another rebound. In plain words, it's a roller coaster of dropping then pulling up.
As for Ethereum, I guess no one wants to look at it. If I held Ethereum spot, I'd be frustrated too. Honestly, Ethereum itself isn't problematic, people's complaints are mainly that Ethereum and the foundation are too zen, not keeping up with the times.
With the market in such chaos, they don't even come out to say something reassuring, not even making an effort to stabilize emotions. In this aspect, Vitalik is not as proactive as some others.
If you're still losing money on short-term trades in the current market, there's only one reason: going against the trend. When it drops to the bottom, you think you can buy the dips, but what happens? You try to buy the dips, and it buys your home!
So in short-term trading, you can only take a bit of profit and retreat, don't be greedy. It's not a deep bear market yet. If you play like this in a deep bear market, even a gold mine at home would be burned out. After several major downward waves, you'll definitely be subdued.
Monthly and weekly trends are clearly bearish, daily and hourly lines are weak, this is a weak market. In a weak market, you can only short. If you didn't short in the past two years, you'd have been done for. By not going against the trend this year and next, you can at least survive. Note this means don't go against the trend, not blindly shorting.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 77300
Second Resistance: 76200
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 74700
Second Support: 73700
Today's Recommendation:
BTC is still in a downward trend. Don't rush to be optimistic even with a short-term rebound. It will continue to decline after rebounding, and bottoming out is still too early.
Currently, the 76.2K to 77.3K is a resistance zone that might see a technical rebound, but breaking through this zone is unlikely.
Recent low points are often broken, which will accelerate downward movement forming an N-shaped decline. When there's a ultra-short-term rebound near support levels, if you want to be conservative, wait for it to break support and then rebound, and check if the K-line can return to support. If it can't return and becomes resistance, consider shorting.
4.9 Master's Wave Trading Preparation:
Long Entry Reference: Currently not recommended
Short Entry Reference: 77300-78000 zone light position short, Target: 76200-74700-73700
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