Chainfeeds Briefing:
The author of this article analyzes the structural changes in the current cryptocurrency market from 16 dimensions. The Chinese version was compiled and published by Techub.
Article Source:
https://www.techub.news/articleDetail/34d1a53c-6ad5-4238-8010-f0617d02793b
Article Author:
Joel John
Perspective:
Joel John: Although the speed and scale of speculative behavior may fluctuate, the most significant achievements (and largest income sources) in this field will still come from speculation and its derivative secondary application scenarios, such as lending, derivatives, and brokerage trading. With Circle submitting its initial public offering (IPO) application, the stablecoin track may be reaching its phased peak. In my view, interest rate cuts will become another domino effect in this field. Considering the dual pressure of channel moats and regulatory challenges, the next major opportunity for stablecoins may not be so hot. Especially for founders not from Silicon Valley, the real marginal opportunity lies in geographically-specific financial technology applications that can leverage crypto payment tracks, rather than "exporting" dollars. Of course, if you can raise over $10 million in funding from the start and are headquartered in the United States, the situation would be different. The DePIN track should theoretically be hot, but considering service level agreements (SLA) and the scale required by large AI projects, the real investment opportunities will be concentrated in networks that can create demand-side revenue of over $100 million. Such networks almost (always) collaborate with private equity or hedge funds to meet short-term capital liquidity needs. So far, I haven't seen any token-based network that can scale to this extent (and maintain reliable operations). The good news is that networks that can expand to such a scale do exist. The bad news is that most of the revenue generated by these networks will not touch the token system. We began to focus on the relationship between tokens and revenue due to two fundamental changes. First, in the "post pump.fun" world, the valuation premium enjoyed by tokens has vanished. When asset attribution occurs, maintaining a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of over $100 million becomes extremely difficult; second, today's stock and forex markets are as volatile as cryptocurrencies, with clearer trends, leading to a complete exhaustion of marginal buying in the crypto market. Venture capital firms have a strong motivation to insist that "tokens as a business model are not dead" and tout that "Web3 is coming". If you choose to ignore industry trends, you can continue to turn a deaf ear for some time. In my view, we are entering a stage where founders issuing tokens will become increasingly fewer, and they will hold earnings in small teams. Crypto venture capital firms may not be able to adapt well to this change, as their liquidity traditionally comes from exchange listings and retail buying. Some may attribute the reduction in crypto VC deployment to the macro environment, but the real reason is that the ability to provide portfolio returns has been greatly weakened with market changes in the years following FTX.
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