The arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) at the human level, predicted for 2027, heralds an unprecedented turning point in terms of technological impact in human history. The recently published report 'AI 2027', which involved dozens of AI experts and key personnel from OpenAI and AI policy centers, specifically forecasts technological progress quarterly and suggests the possibility of AGI emerging as early as 2027.
According to the report, multimodal models are on the verge of acquiring high-dimensional reasoning and autonomy. In this context, AGI is expected to possess capabilities equal to or surpassing humans in scientific research, creative thinking, and common-sense judgment, with the potential for Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) emerging just months later that significantly exceeds human capabilities. These predictions are gaining credibility based on clear data, scenario techniques, and analyses from groups familiar with research fields.
Of course, skeptical perspectives also exist. For instance, Ali Farhadi, CEO of the Allen Institute for AI, warned against excessive optimism in an interview with the New York Times, calling 'AI 2027' a prediction disconnected from current research realities. In contrast, Jack Clark, co-founder of Anthropic, positively evaluated the report as "technically sophisticated and highly feasible", and Dario Amodei, Anthropic's CEO, and Google DeepMind have previously mentioned AGI's emergence by 2027 and 2030 respectively.
While predictions about AGI's arrival time vary, it's difficult to deny that technological progress has accelerated beyond expectations. After the remarkable development of large language models (LLM), AGI prediction timelines have been moved forward by over 30 years, from 2058 to recently 2028. Geoffrey Hinton, considered AI's founder, who previously anticipated AGI decades away, now suggests its potential realization within five years.
The problem is that despite imminent technology, businesses, society, and governments are woefully unprepared. Industries replaceable by AI such as customer service, content creation, programming, and data analysis are unavoidable shock, which could be accelerated during economic downturns under the pretext of labor cost reduction. A mere two-year grace period is utterly insufficient for industry-wide retraining and adaptation.
Even more crucial are the philosophical questions AGI poses to human existence. René Descartes' declaration "I think, therefore I am" grounded existence in individual thought. If machines become capable of thinking, human-centric worldviews will be fundamentally unavoidable. Recent research indeed warns that increased dependence on generative AI could diminish human critical thinking.
Nevertheless, AGI represents as much opportunity as crisis. Dario Amodei has emphasized that powerful AI could compress 100 years of biological research into just 10 years, potentially delivering overwhelming achievements across human welfare, including medical fields.
Ultimately, whether AI 2027's predictions are accurate or not, the scenario is significant enough to be treated seriously and thoughtfully. Companies must simultaneously develop technology and enhance organizational flexibility, while governments must promptly establish regulatory frameworks considering both AI safety and social implications. Individuals must also focus on uniquely human strengths like creativity, emotional intelligence, and complex judgment, and quickly explore healthy coexistence with AI.
The future is no longer an abstract subject of speculation. It is a reality right before us. The course of our era will be written not by algorithms, but within today's decisions and values.
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