Bitcoin (BTC) is heading towards a new peak in April as macro instability unexpectedly becomes a "tailwind" driving price increases
Specifically, Bitcoin is on a strong upward trajectory, approaching the 88,000 USD threshold. However, most investors remain cautious about rapid breakouts. In the context of a new trading week starting with the shadow of the US-China trade war, the market is also preparing to receive a series of statements from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
Gold continues to break historical records, and this time Bitcoin is beginning to show a similar reaction. The weakening USD, dropping to its lowest level in 3 years, is triggering strong price forecast predictions not just for Bitcoin, but for commodities in general.
Although new holders have started to profit from the recent price increase, speculators are still waiting for a clearer signal - specifically the "recapture" of the 91,000 USD mark.
Bitcoin starts the new week with a 3% increase, thanks to new macro fluctuations due to escalating US-China trade tensions. The BTC/USD pair reached a peak of 87,705 USD after closing the weekly candle on 20/4 - the highest level in nearly three weeks.
However, traders remain cautious, especially when price jumps occur on weekends - a time without participation from traditional financial institutions (TradFi), leading to low liquidity and high volatility. The Stockmoney Lizards account commented on X:
"A quite beautiful price breakout, but occurring under low trading volume... We still need further confirmation. In any case, we shouldn't be too excited."
The Honeybadger analyst shared that he never believes in Sunday pumps - looking at it, he only sees breakouts, and advised everyone to calmly wait and see how the situation will be next week.
"Seeing Bitcoin escape the downward trend is a good signal, but timing is a crucial factor. Sunday is not a day to celebrate a pump when the stock market is closed. If the stock market turns red tomorrow and Bitcoin's candle remains green - that would be the time to be happy," the IncomeSharks account also expressed a similar view.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe seemed unenthusiastic about both Bitcoin and gold, suggesting prices could soon reverse. Meanwhile, analyst Scott Melker - known by the nickname "Wolf of All Streets" - noted:
"Bitcoin needs to surpass 88,804 USD to break the chain of lower highs and lows, ending the prolonged downward trend. Is the time now?"
This week, senior Fed officials will consecutively make statements, clarifying their stance in the context of an increasingly divided US economy.
A total of 8 regional Fed Chairs will speak out in a context of escalating tensions between the Fed and President Donald Trump. Last week, Trump even made a request to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell - a move that made investors worried about the US's macro stability.
Meanwhile, Powell maintains a "hawkish" stance, clearly showing caution in cutting interest rates - especially when trade war increases inflationary pressures. Data from CME Group's FedWatch tool also reflects this: the market only expects the Fed to start lowering interest rates at the June meeting.
With few new economic data about to be released, the market's attention continues to focus on trade tensions and the level of volatility they bring. On the first day of the week, China issued a warning about the US's efforts to isolate the country - a move that caused US futures contract stocks to drop deeply, while gold continued to break records.
Surprisingly, this time Bitcoin did not follow the stock market's downward trend but instead accompanied gold's upward momentum. The Kobeissi Letter account shared:
"Gold just set its 55th historical peak in the past 12 months, and Bitcoin officially joined, surpassing 87,000 USD... For the first time in many years, gold and Bitcoin are sending a common message: a weaker USD and unavoidable instability ahead."
Gold is the most prominent price-increasing asset in 2025. In the context of instability due to trade war and long-term impacts on global inflation and assets, the XAU/USD pair has increased nearly 30% since the beginning of the year. Currently, gold is fluctuating around 3,424 USD/ounce - a level never before recorded.
Although some experts warn about the possibility of a "blow-off top", the upward momentum shows no signs of slowing down.
The Kobeissi Letter noted that Trump's latest social media post - a "list of non-tariff fraud" - has sparked gold's crazy increase:
"President Trump's 'non-tariff fraud' list could be the most positive factor for gold this year... Gold knows exactly what is about to happen."
Kobeissi also pointed out that since the market collapse during COVID-19 in March 2020, gold has outperformed the S&P 500. Meanwhile, Bitcoin seems to be entering a new phase where the BTC/USD pair has finally begun reacting to macro fluctuations like gold - something never seen before during months of downtrend.
As the downward trend is gradually left behind, the market begins to compare with historical precedents: in the past, Bitcoin's breakouts typically occurred about three months after gold.
"Right after the futures market opened, it didn't take long for both BTC and gold to accelerate simultaneously, while stocks plummeted," trader Daan Crypto Trades observed.
"A quite interesting development, and it further consolidates the relative strength Bitcoin has shown over the past few weeks."
Adding to the overall market picture is the new weakness of the US dollar - which hedge fund founder Andreas Steno Larsen described as a "positive initial signal for Bitcoin".
"We haven't seen anything yet, if this trend continues (and if Powell is dismissed)," he wrote on X, accompanied by a chart comparing the performance of Bitcoin and USD.
The US Dollar Strength Index (DXY), used to measure the strength of the greenback against a basket of currencies from major US trading partners, continued to drop by 1.3% as of April 21. Since the beginning of the year, DXY has fallen nearly 10%, currently touching its lowest level since March 2022.
This development is being considered a potential "catalyst" for a large Bull run of both Bitcoin and commodities.
The Rock Bottom Entries analysis account commented:
"The USD is falling into a 'no buyers' state, facing the risk of breaking a 14-year upward trend since 2011... Forget 2016 and 2020 - this could be the beginning of a commodity super cycle like the 2000s."
Historical data shows Bitcoin tends to surge strongly when DXY weakens rapidly. However, this inverse correlation has not been clear recently. Analyst Joe Dean notes:
"Contrary to what you often hear on social media, Bitcoin has tended to move in the same direction as DXY in recent years... DXY has peaked and then sunk deep, and is likely to return to the medium level. BTC will probably follow a similar trajectory."
BTC's short-term price movements are creating a clear difference among some investor groups. According to a new report from onchain analysis platform CryptoQuant, even when touching the 87,000 USD mark, the most recent buyer group has already gained an average of 3.7%.
"This is a short-term price increase signal, showing returning confidence and significantly reduced panic risk among new market participants," the Crazzyblockk account wrote in CryptoQuant's "Quicktake" blog.
This development contrasts with the short-term holders (STH) group - those holding BTC for a maximum of 6 months - who currently have an average capital level of 91,000 USD. The STH group's capital level typically plays a support or resistance role over a long period, as this speculative trader group tends to react strongly to price fluctuations.
CryptoQuant further warns:
"Until BTC closes a candle above the 91,000 USD threshold, the STH group is still experiencing losses. This could maintain potential selling pressure, especially if the momentum weakens - highlighting the importance of a clear breakout beyond the STH capital price zone to neutralize this barrier."
You can view Bitcoin prices here.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should thoroughly research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment choices.
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