4 月 25 日，Glassnode 发文表示，比特币短期持有者盈亏比（STH Profit/Loss Ratio）已反弹至中性水平 1.0，表明当前处于盈利和亏损状态的代币数量大致相当。历史上，该阈值在熊市期间通常会构成阻力。如果该指标能持续突破 1.0 上方，将暗示市场动能增强，走势回暖的可能性上升。

<div><p>4 月 25 日，Glassnode 发文表示，比特币短期持有者盈亏比（STH Profit/Loss Ratio）已反弹至中性水平 1.0，表明当前处于盈利和亏损状态的代币数量大致相当。历史上，该阈值在熊市期间通常会构成阻力。如果该指标能持续突破 1.0 上方，将暗示市场动能增强，走势回暖的可能性上升。</p></div>

Glassnode：比特币短期持有者盈亏比回升至中性水平，若该指标持续升高将预示反弹动能增强

On April 25, glassnode published an article stating that the Short-Term Holder Profit/Loss Ratio (STH Profit/Loss Ratio) has rebounded to a neutral level of 1.0, indicating that the number of tokens currently in profit and loss is roughly equivalent. Historically, this threshold typically serves as resistance during bear markets. If this indicator can consistently break above 1.0, it will suggest increased market momentum and a higher likelihood of a trend reversal.

<div><p>On April 25, glassnode published an article stating that the Short-Term Holder Profit/Loss Ratio for Bitcoin has rebounded to a neutral level of 1.0, indicating that the number of tokens currently in profit and loss is roughly equivalent. Historically, this threshold typically serves as resistance during bear markets. If this indicator can consistently break above 1.0, it would suggest increased market momentum and a higher likelihood of a market recovery.</p></div>

Glassnode: The profit-loss ratio of short-term Bitcoin holders has returned to a neutral level. If the indicator continues to rise, it will indicate that the rebound momentum is increasing.

Following the controversy surrounding Fundstrat's Bitcoin views, co-founder Tom Lee responded, stating that the "contradictory predictions" seen by outsiders were actually research conclusions from different positions and timelines, not internal disagreements. Previously, Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, suggested that Bitcoin might retrace to the $60,000-$65,000 range in the first half of 2026; while Tom Lee believed Bitcoin could reach new highs, even surging to $200,000 as early as the beginning of 2026. A Fundstrat...

Tom Lee responds to Fundstrat's "contradictory" views on Bitcoin: Different positions, different timelines, not internal disagreements.

Next Week's Key Preview

December 22nd

Aster: Phase 5 airdrop will begin on December 22nd and last for 6 weeks;

Espresso will open airdrop registration on December 22nd;

December 23rd

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release third-quarter GDP data on December 23rd;

December 24th
U.S. and European stock markets will be closed for Christmas, and whether a "Christmas rally" will materialize remains uncertain;

The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20th;...

Must-watch items next week: US Bureau of Economic Analysis to release Q3 GDP data; Aster launches fifth phase of airdrop (December 22-28).

Source: Galaxy Research
Translation: Jinse Finance
Bitcoin's closing price in 2025 is expected to be roughly the same as the level at the beginning of the year.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a genuine bullish wave in the first ten months of this year. Regulatory reforms continued to advance, ETFs continued to attract funds, and on-chain activity became increasingly active. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th.
However, the market failed to deliver the expected breakout after the initial frenzy; instead, it experienced rotation, repricing, and rebalancing. This was driven by factors such as unmet macroeconomic expectations, a shift in investment narratives, leveraged liquidations, and the actions of whale...