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The cryptocurrency market has been recovering since last week, with Bitcoin briefly breaking through the $95,000 mark multiple times recently, and currently standing at $95,329, showing a remarkably resilient performance.
Standard Chartered Bank: Bitcoin Will See a New Round of Increase
The market is currently highly focused on whether Bitcoin can break through its current resistance and challenge the $100,000 mark, or even potentially set a new historical high.
Against this background, Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted in his latest report released on Monday (28th) that Bitcoin is about to enter its next wave of growth.
He proposed several indicators supporting this judgment: First, the U.S. Treasury term premium (highly correlated with Bitcoin price) has reached a 12-year high, possibly hinting at bullish sentiment for Bitcoin; Second, trading session analysis shows that U.S. investors are actively seeking non-U.S. assets, which became particularly evident after Trump previously announced a 90-day tariff grace period for all countries except China.
Additionally, Asian investors have started buying Bitcoin, further strengthening the upward momentum. Meanwhile, "whale" investors holding over 1,000 bitcoins continue to accumulate during market downturns, consistent with whale buying behavior during significant market movements; Lastly, ETF fund flows over the past week indicate investors are shifting from gold to Bitcoin, highlighting Bitcoin's attractiveness as a hedge asset.
Kendrick further noted that Bitcoin's primary role in investment portfolios is as a hedge against risks in the existing financial system, and he believes it is more effective than gold. He stated that Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it perform better in addressing financial system risks, while gold is more suitable for countering geopolitical risks.
Based on the above analysis, Kendrick is extremely optimistic about Bitcoin's performance, predicting that Bitcoin will reach a historical high of $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025, and maintaining his bullish view of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025. He emphasized that the U.S. 13F position report to be published in mid-May may reveal long-term buying from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and with the potential expectation of U.S. stablecoin legislation passing, Bitcoin's upward trend may continue into the summer.
Bernstein: Corporate Accumulation and ETF Supply Squeeze Will Drive Bitcoin Higher
Echoing Standard Chartered's optimistic forecast, Bernstein is also bullish on Bitcoin's subsequent performance. Bernstein analysts pointed out that retail selling pressure exhaustion, expanded corporate accumulation competition, and Bitcoin ETF fund inflows are driving a "supply squeeze" that could lead to a new historical high for Bitcoin.
Bernstein analysts reiterated their prediction that Bitcoin will reach a cycle high of around $200,000 by the end of 2025, and $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033:
In the long term, we believe Bitcoin's fundamentals are driven by its own demand trajectory and mathematically proven immutable supply of 21 million coins. Currently, 19.9 million bitcoins have been mined, and of the remaining 1.1 million, nearly 95% will be mined within the next 10 years. Under the current supply and demand dynamics, we find it difficult to be pessimistic about this asset.
