Maybe my defensiveness on Bitcoin in March & early April was misplaced. Maybe my bearishness on stocks since March has been misplaced. But its a risk I was willing to endure. I never shorted the market or BTC, never sold any BTC, and raised ~15% of cash in my stock account.

When I rang alarm bells in late-February, I talked about wanting to "do no harm", which meant that I wouldn't short anything & wouldn't rush for the exits in my portfolio. I rode the majority of the wave down, mostly sat on my hands, and sold stocks along the way at resistance.

As I look at this recovery, I'm not convinced that we're back in a full bull market regime (for equities) or that my "sell the rip" thesis has been invalidated. I have invalidation criteria that I've been sharing for weeks. I wrote an update about it this weekend (link in bio).

My long-term stock account is 80% allocated to stocks. Bitcoin is roughly 70% of my net worth. Clearly, with this allocation, I'm not positioned bearish. I haven't felt nervous & I'm comfortable with my allocation, outlook, and risk exposure. I'm rooting for upside.

Still, I'm not a "cheerleader" analyst. I'm not here to be dogmatic or to ignore objective truth. I'm here to share the data & the facts that I'm using to interpret the market and to make actual investing decisions. Stick along for the ride and embrace nuance. Cheers.