Bitcoin Futures Basis Roars Back as BTC Tops US$90K—Here’s Why It Matters 🧵

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Today, American Bitcoin Corp. (ABTC) officially listed on the Nasdaq. Co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer Eric Trump, who has close ties to the Trump family, staged a thrilling "capital roller coaster" on its first day of trading.
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ABTC Pump and Dump
Market data shows that ABTC surged over 110% during the opening session, but ultimately closed up approximately 17%.
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ABTC is reaping the rewards as soon as it goes public, and the Trump family win big again.

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1/ Futures Premium Rebounds
As BTC climbed above US$90k, the CME futures basis jumped back to an annualized 5-10%, signaling renewed leveraged interest and growing market confidence. 

2/ Spot ETF Inflows Surge
The futures basis rebound coincides with the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posting their second-highest weekly net inflows on record, attracting ~US$3B. This highlights strong demand for the underlying spot asset. 

3/ Leveraged Funds Add Shorts Despite Price Rally
Last week, leveraged funds increased their net short positions in Bitcoin futures to -16,203 contracts—roughly 81,000 BTC or US$7.8B. This move runs counter to the spot price increase and aligns with their typical pattern of 

4/ Basis Trade Makes a Comeback
Rising futures premiums, increased leveraged shorts, and strong ETF inflows points to a revival of the basis trade strategy—long spot or ETF, short futures. This indicates arbitrageurs are actively re-entering the market.

5/ Futures Premium Could Reinforce Spot Support
The rising premium reflects growing optimism in the futures market. If sustained, it may incentivize more basis trading activity—long spot, short futures—which can drive capital into the spot market and provide underlying support

6/ What Drives the Futures Premium
Unlike commodities with storage costs, Bitcoin’s futures premium typically reflects financing or opportunity costs—mainly the risk-free rate foregone by holding spot BTC. In theory, futures prices equal spot price plus the implied interest over

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