HTX DeepThink is a crypto market insight column meticulously crafted by HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and crypto industry hotspots, injecting new thinking power into the market and helping readers "find order in chaos" in the ever-changing crypto world.
In last week's HTX DeepThink column, HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) predicted a potential liquidity window in early May based on macro data, with funds flowing back into the crypto market; on May 8th, Bitcoin returned to $100,000 after a 3-month hiatus, and Ethereum broke through the $2,000 mark, confirming the analyst's judgment. How long can this upward momentum last? What is the significance of the latest tariff agreement between the US and UK? In this special HTX DeepThink update, Chloe will provide a new interpretation.
Symbolic Significance of Bitcoin National Strategic Reserve Legislation in New Hampshire and Texas
On May 7th, New Hampshire officially became the first US state to pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, authorizing state finance to purchase BTC through spot ETFs or market purchases. The Texas SB 21 bill has completed all committee reviews and is expected to enter final voting within the next 3 weeks. This represents Bitcoin being formally incorporated into the "sovereign asset" perspective, possessing a status partially alternative to government bonds and gold; meanwhile, the BTC procurement mechanism led by local governments may be replicated in 10-15 Republican states, providing medium to long-term buying support for spot ETFs and on-chain markets.
This market signal is extremely critical - even as the federal level remains observant, state-level Bitcoin reserve institutionalization has begun.
US-UK Tariff Agreement Signals "De-risking"
On May 8th, the US and UK reached a breakthrough tariff agreement, including the UK opening agricultural tariffs to the US in exchange for reduced US automotive tariffs; UK steel and aluminum exports to the US will have 0% tariffs; the US maintains a 10% "reciprocal tariff" framework on UK imports. Although the UK's actual goods trade with the US is already in deficit, the economic significance of this agreement is limited, but it releases relaxation space. US Secretary of Commerce Raimondo also stated he hopes the next trade agreement will be with a "large Asian country", indicating the Trump administration's willingness to release structural positive signals in trade.
Bitcoin's Market Pricing Structure Transitioning from "Volatility Trading Logic" to "Structural Fund Allocation Logic"
As policy-side relaxation signals are gradually released, Bitcoin's fund flow structure has also undergone deep changes. In the past three weeks, US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $5.3 billion, creating a single-season peak since listing. This inflow is not retail-driven but primarily driven by institutional actions like Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund, Swiss Central Bank increasing MicroStrategy stock holdings, and BlackRock ETF holdings rising. This marks Bitcoin's market pricing structure transitioning from "volatility trading logic" to "structural fund allocation logic". In this process, BTC is no longer a subordinate of risk assets but gradually establishing its independent capital flow ecology, becoming a "supranational asset" between gold and US bonds in some investors' eyes.
Currently, there are no signs of "frenzied surge"; Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) remains stable at 50-55%, far below the 80%+ typical of historical bull market peaks; CME Bitcoin futures open interest is around $14.8 billion, lower than the $20 billion peak during Trump's election in 2020; 10-year US Treasury yield has repeatedly failed to break 4.60%, currently maintained around 4.40%. Comprehensive judgment suggests that as long as US bond yields do not re-break 4.8% and ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is expected to oscillate and consolidate between $105,000 and $115,000, awaiting the next breakthrough opportunity.
Potential Risk: US-China and US-EU Trade Negotiations May Escalate Tariff Wars
However, caution is needed regarding potential difficulties in US-China and US-EU trade negotiations. US President Trump has clearly stated he will not lower the 145% tariffs on China to restart trade talks. Additionally, EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Šefčovič stated that if EU-US tariff negotiations fail, the EU will prepare retaliatory measures to rebalance bilateral trade relations, ready to impose tariffs on approximately €100 billion of US goods. These potential trade friction escalations might negatively impact global market sentiment, thereby pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin.
"HTX DeepThink: Finding Order in Chaos"
Note: This content is not investment advice and does not constitute any investment product offer, solicitation, or recommendation.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research department of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis of cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to offering data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a crucial role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting wise decisions in the digital asset domain. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, leading industry thought development and promoting deep understanding of constantly changing market dynamics.
