According to Mars Finance and Golden Ten Data, CITIC Securities research report stated that the US April CPI growth rate was generally moderate and below expectations. However, prices of furniture, home appliances, and toys seem to have begun reflecting the impact of White House tariffs. The current year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% may be the lowest point for the entire year. Through static calculations, considering the Sino-US joint statement on May 12th, if the White House's tariff measures since the beginning of the year remain unchanged, they may cumulatively increase the US PCE deflator by approximately 0.85% and drag down US GDP by about 0.3% in the long term. The Trump administration must reduce prescription drug prices by at least 30% to offset the inflationary impact of its tariff measures. The "ceiling" and "floor" of US tariff levels are becoming visible, and trade policy visibility is being restored, which is good news for risk assets such as US stocks, and the US dollar may also receive support in the near term. We remain cautious about US bonds.
CITIC Securities comments on the US April CPI: "Good data" that will not last long
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