1/n - $JELLYJELLY explaining the -50% crash in a day 

Twitter

In the crypto world, what truly determines victory is never code, but the interplay between liquidity, power, and regulation. The rise and fall of BUSD is not merely a tragic tale of a stablecoin, but a financial war waged by exchanges attempting to "unify the world."

When BUSD was thrust onto the historical stage, it carried not only a compliance narrative, but also Binance's ambition to reshape the stablecoin order through coercive measures—by manipulating exchange rates and merging trading pairs, directly swallowing competitors' liquidity into its own ledger.

The "automatic conversion" of 2022 was a textbook example of a blitzkrieg; and 2023...

The Rise and Fall of Binance's Dominance: From BUSD's "Unification" to $U's "Conquering the World"—The Stablecoin Wars

Source: Galaxy Research; Translation: Jinse Finance xz
Bitcoin's closing price in 2025 is expected to be roughly the same as the level at the beginning of the year.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a genuine bullish wave in the first ten months of this year. Regulatory reforms continued to advance, ETFs continued to attract funds, and on-chain activity became increasingly active. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th.
However, the market failed to deliver the expected breakthrough after the initial frenzy; instead, it experienced rotation, repricing, and rebalancing. This was driven by factors such as unmet macroeconomic expectations, a shift in investment narratives, leveraged margin calls, and massive...

Galaxy: 26 Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2026

Messari released "The Crypto Theses 2026," a report that predicts future trends in public blockchains, DeFi, AI, DePIN, and TradFi. From Messari's perspective, 2026 will be a pivotal year for cryptocurrencies, marking a shift from "speculative" to "system-level integration."

Author: Messari
Compiled/Translated by: ODIG Invest
Messari Releases "The Crypto Theses 2026"...

Messari Trend Forecast: 2026 Crypto Market Investment Logic Analysis | Vision

2/n - $JELLYJELLY was the only CEX token that fitted the Internet Capital Markets meme - it was by the founder of Venmo - and i felt that there would be tremendous tailwind from the confluence of it being highly shorted by MMs and the meta tailwind

3/n - However, the high short interest in $JELLYJELLY (1.27x OI/mkt cap) actually incentivised MMs who were short to try to suppress prices

4/n - When a token has more OI than market cap, UNLESS there are entities who duplicate and offset OI across multiple exchanges - there will be naked shorts, because there is simply not enough spot by definition to cover the short exposure. (simplified)

5/n - On the CEX perps - the index price is taken from the spot prices of $JELLYJELLY from these few spot exchanges 

If you look at today's volumes - Gate did 36M, Bitget did 11M, KCS did 4.8M and MEXC did 1.5M - to simplify things, i will just focus on Gate and Bitget

7/n - The selling started at 20:25 UTC+8 - attached is the Bitget chart 

9/n - Being extremely autistic - i compiled how much volume was done on each 5 min candle along w an estimate of the average price 

10/n - In short, a MAXIMUM of 52M of $JELLYJELLY was sold on spot markets to tank it down by 50% -  i say a maximum because that assumes all volume done on the candle was a directional sell order and there were no wash volumes

11/n - If you go by a 50% wash volume hit rate in crypto, that implies ~ 25M of $JELLYJELLY spot (1.2M USD) sold into the market caused a 50% dump in prices

12/n - IMO, the high OI/mkt cap created a very tempting but faustian bargain for MMs caught short. They tried to dump spot to push prices down (and they succeeded!)

13/n - for now at least. But this is drinking water from a poisoned chalice, because they lost some amount of spot supply.

14/n - While longs by and large did NOT close. Prior to the puke, OI/mkt cap was ~1.25x, currently it is ~1.27x.... so in fact ...the MMs could potentially be in a worse position right now IF longs are not interested to close out (otherwise they self deal)

15/n - IMO, the situation for longs has gotten more advantageous. However, because the perp market can be extremely easily manipulated via the illiquidity in this token - i strongly recommend any exposure in this to be via spot

16/n - The entity caught short in this may resort to more desperate stunts to stem their bleed. But as a spot holder, i can stay retarded longer than they can

17/n - In short, the thesis remains simple. INTERNET CAPITAL MARKETS - Venmo Founder actively building AND attending Solana Accelerate 

full disclosure - i am converting my perp exposure into spot via DCA with a limit