Author: arndxt_xo
Translated by: Blockchain in Plain Language
Why I No Longer Recommend Friends to "Learn Cryptocurrency" First
Last month, I tried again to guide a non-cryptocurrency user into the field. Ten minutes later, she was lost between "choosing a wallet" and "paying gas fees with another token". I realized: We are facing a design gap, not a knowledge gap.
An obvious fact is that speculation brought the first wave of users, but it cannot attract the next billion users. True popularization will begin when cryptocurrency products become "invisible" - users can benefit from them without realizing it. From the rise of stablecoins, institutional staking, to the increasingly important role of AI in shaping the digital economy, the foundation for mass adoption has been laid. But to unlock this future, we must stop expecting users to learn about cryptocurrency and instead create products they won't even realize they are using.
Here are my views on eight trends:
The Next Generation of Wallets Will Win by Focusing on Doing One Thing Well
We are witnessing a structural transformation: users tend to use two complementary wallets - one like a "daily" fintech app, and another like a "bank" app vault.
Wallet experiences are diverging. Developers trying to cram all functions into a single interface will lose to combination wallets focused on (a) frictionless onboarding and (b) high-security storage.
Current situation:
Over half of users use 2-5 wallets simultaneously, and nearly 48% say this is because each blockchain network is still an isolated "walled garden".
Top concentration: Among users with over 2 years of experience, 54% are concentrated in Binance, Coinbase, MetaMask, or Trust Wallet, while for new users, the market share of a single wallet is less than 20%.
Self-custody remains intimidating: Even in familiar brand ecosystems (like Binance's Web3 wallet), only 22% of users choose self-custody.
The inevitability of multiple wallets: Users don't want to manage multiple wallets; they just have no choice.
The "seamless multi-chain future" has not been realized, with 48% of users forced to use multiple wallets due to different blockchain ecosystems.
44% of users deliberately separate wallets for security reasons, up from 33% last year.
Insights:
The industry has failed to achieve true interoperability, pushing operational complexity onto end-users.
Users are becoming smarter and no longer blindly trust a single wallet to handle all scenarios.
Misalignment Between Behavior and Beliefs
54% of users used cryptocurrency for payment or peer-to-peer transfers in the past quarter, but only 12% say payment is their favorite activity.
In contrast, trading (spot, MEME, DeFi) remains the primary weekly behavior for most user types (with few exceptions).
Three major barriers where speculation suppresses utility:
Cost barrier: 39% of users consider high gas fees on Layer 1 networks the biggest adoption obstacle.
User experience barrier: Only 11% of users believe the current entry experience is sufficient to attract the masses.
Network barrier: Payments need to flow smoothly between merchants and friends, but fragmented wallets and chains disrupt this cycle.
Blockchain Becomes a New Infrastructure Layer, But Users Should Not Perceive Its Existence
The multi-chain landscape is a division of labor:
Ethereum: Institutional-level settlement layer.
Solana: Quickly becoming the preferred chain for high-frequency, high-engagement retail activities due to speed and low-cost advantages.
Chain abstraction is the winning mode: Wallet sessions will smoothly route orders, balances, and identities to the backend with the best latency-cost-security, without users manually selecting chains.
Data:
Solana performs excellently: Year-on-year fee growth +3000%, Total Value Locked (TVL) growth +127%, the highest among all L1s.
User preferences: 43% primarily use Ethereum, 39% choose Solana, only 10% primarily use L2 - proving interoperability is still theoretical.
False Rise of User Confidence
Users claim to feel safer on-chain, but their wallet behaviors tell a different story.
Paradox reasons: Users confuse personal security measures (like hardware wallets, multi-signatures) with systemic risks.
Reality: Attackers have industrialized "phishing as a service", and malicious contract lifecycles have shortened fourfold.
Product priorities: Anti-phishing user experiences (clear signature interfaces, real-time transaction simulations, MPC transaction firewalls) must transform from advanced add-ons to "daily" wallet default settings.
Non-Fungible Tokens as Digital Culture Infrastructure
The Non-Fungible Token market is experiencing a necessary correction, shifting from speculative PFP projects to real digital goods and utility-driven experiences, appearing sustainable for the first time.
Trends:
Low-cost, high-frequency participation: Like Rodeo.Club and Base's low-cost collection boom, similar to in-game purchases.
Non-Fungible Tokens as participation infrastructure for the digital economy: Loyalty points, badges, membership benefits will be on-chain in Non-Fungible Token form, cross-platform portable and tradable.
Rise of cultural capital: Non-Fungible Tokens become a mechanism for users to express identity and cultural belonging in digital spaces.
New metrics: Non-Fungible Token success is no longer determined by floor price but defined by user retention and engagement.
AI + Non-Fungible Token: AI-generated dynamic Non-Fungible Tokens will evolve based on user behavior, mood, or community events, bringing personalized experiences.
Bitcoin as a Macro Asset Class
Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative asset to a macro financial tool and is becoming a transaction layer for global settlement.
Trends:
From hedging to strategic reserve assets: De-dollarizing countries are quietly exploring Bitcoin as part of reserve diversification strategies.
L2 unlocks payment utility: Lightning Network matures as a scalable payment layer, with new protocols like Fedimint and Ark addressing privacy and user experience issues.
Bitcoin as collateral: Institutions are beginning to use Bitcoin in structured financial products like credit tools and derivatives.
Global settlement network: Bitcoin as a neutral, censorship-resistant trade settlement layer, complementing rather than competing with fiat currencies.
Institutional Staking as a Strategic Fund Allocation Model
After Bitcoin established its macro hedging position, institutions began exploring how to generate returns on these assets.
Retail chases speculation, institutions choose staking: Institutional funds are steadily flowing into Ethereum and Solana's staking ecosystems.
Bitcoin staking potential: Through protocols like Babylon, Bitcoin is also beginning to enter yield-generating strategies.
Infrastructure over validators: The next wave of institutional funds will flow to platforms providing institutional-grade custody, compliance reporting, and risk management staking products.
Yield diversification: Against the backdrop of declining traditional fixed-income product attractiveness, staking yields become a new risk-adjusted return category.
Regulation, Stablecoins, and AI: The Next Entry Point
Regulatory optimism: 86% of users believe clearer rules will accelerate adoption, with only 14% thinking they will hinder innovation.
Stablecoin rise: Ownership nearly doubled year-on-year to 37%, already the default payment rail in over 30 Stripe markets.
AI collaboration: 64% of users believe AI will accelerate cryptocurrency development, with 29% anticipating a two-way flywheel effect.
Summary
Users are no longer fascinated by "Web3". They expect Web2-level simplicity, Web3-level ownership, and AI-level intelligence, all in one.
Teams that can abstract chain selection, eliminate fee pain points, and embed predictive safety nets will transform cryptocurrency from a speculative playground to a connecting organization of the on-chain internet. The next billion users won't even know they're using Web3 products, and this "invisibility" will be the ultimate user experience victory.
