JPMorgan Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou's analysis team recently pointed out that gold and BTC currently exhibit a "zero-sum game" relationship, where one's rise comes at the expense of the other:
From mid-February to mid-April, gold's rise came at the expense of BTC; in the past three weeks, the situation reversed, with BTC's rise suppressing gold.
Based on this observation, JPMorgan expects this "zero-sum pattern" to continue until the second half of 2025, but emphasizes that BTC has multiple positive factors that could give it a relative advantage. The report noted:
Overall, we expect the zero-sum game between gold and BTC this year to continue through the second half, but we tend to believe that specific crypto catalysts will give BTC more upside potential compared to gold.
BTC's Positive Factors Support Bullish Momentum
Besides gold's price weakness, JPMorgan also highlighted several structural positive factors driving BTC's current upward momentum, including:
- Continued Institutional BTC Accumulation: Companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet have continued to expand their BTC positions.
- US State Governments Incorporating BTC as Reserve Asset: New Hampshire now allows up to 5% of state government assets to be invested in BTC and gold. Arizona established a digital asset reserve, acquiring funds through staking rewards and airdrops, while promising no tax increases.
- Crypto Derivatives Market Maturing: US crypto exchanges are actively developing derivatives markets: Coinbase acquired Deribit, and Kraken bought NinjaTrader. Analysts believe that as the regulatory environment becomes clearer, these developments can attract more institutional investors, enhancing overall market depth and confidence.
Therefore, with gold's weak pricing and these crypto-specific catalysts, JPMorgan analysts believe BTC will have stronger upside potential in the second half of 2025.
CoinDesk Technical Analyst: BTC and MSTR Simultaneously Show Golden Cross
Meanwhile, CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Omkar Godbole noted in his latest technical analysis report that BTC and Strategy (MSTR) recently simultaneously issued bullish signals, potentially indicating a major bullish trend is about to launch.
He described this situation as similar to "two mainstream newspapers simultaneously supporting the same presidential candidate", suggesting broad support. Similarly, when BTC and the most BTC-holding listed company MSTR's technical indicators simultaneously strengthen, it often symbolizes market and major institutional investor consensus.
Specifically, BTC and MSTR's daily charts show that their 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed above the 100-day SMA, forming a "golden cross". This is considered an important indicator confirming a medium-to-short-term bullish trend, suggesting short-term movements are leading long-term trends. BTC's golden cross also aligns with other indicators like MACD, indicating a higher probability of price appreciation.
