On May 16, Matrixport released a weekly report stating that Bitcoin has rebounded to the upper end of its oscillation range ($106,000), and with multiple positive catalysts, the market generally expects it to break through its historical high. As stage-specific downside risks are mitigated, Bitcoin's upward path has become increasingly clear. Recent announcements by Trump focusing on attracting capital and trade cooperation have further boosted market optimism towards stocks and Bitcoin. If tax reduction policies from the Trump era continue, coupled with potential regulatory relaxation, this may further stimulate market expectations for economic growth, driving a reassessment of growth prospects and repricing of bond yields.
Under the current context, risk assets, especially Bitcoin, are expected to encounter a favorable trading window before July. This period coincides with the end of the 90-day tariff truce, the launch of the second-quarter earnings season, and the peak of liquidity indicators we track. Another important catalyst is the upcoming debt repayment process by FTX, targeting accounts with debt amounts exceeding $50,000, expected to launch around May 30, 2025. This round of repayment is anticipated to distribute approximately $5 billion in stablecoins, a significant portion of which may re-enter the crypto market. This new liquidity could drive market momentum in June, creating a resonance effect with continued Bitcoin ETF fund inflows and stablecoin trading activity.
Since Bitcoin broke through the $84,500 technical threshold in mid-April, we have maintained a constructive and bullish perspective. Despite Bitcoin's rise of approximately $20,000 (about 25%), we still believe the upward momentum is not exhausted and the trend is likely to continue into the summer.
