On May 12, BTC has rebounded to the upper end of its oscillation range ($106,000), and with the emergence of multiple positive catalysts, breaking the historical high point may gradually enter market expectations. The dissipation of stage-down risk makes the path for further price increases more clear.
Technology Stock Pressure Eases, Market Sentiment Recovers
Previously, the first round of pullback in US tech stocks was mainly triggered by downward profit expectations; however, with the concentrated disclosure of Q1 2025 financial reports in April, related pressure has significantly eased. Meanwhile, market concerns about tech giants reducing AI-related data center spending have been dispelled—multiple companies have reaffirmed their long-term investment commitments to artificial intelligence infrastructure. These statements boosted investor confidence, drove stock price recovery, and simultaneously improved market sentiment.
Trump Policies May Provide Positive Catalyst, Boosting Market Expectations
Trump is shifting focus to announcing external investment plans and cooperation agreements, further boosting market risk appetite for stocks and BTC. Financial report disclosures and stock buyback restarts confirm that the market has reversed from a downward trend to a bullish pattern. Trump's potential tax cut policies may continue, coupled with expectations of potential regulatory relaxation, which could constitute a positive catalyst for the market and is expected to further boost economic growth expectations. This might prompt the market to reprice growth expectations and readjust bond yields.
Multiple Positive Factors Overlap, Risk Assets Expected to Enter Favorable Trading Window in July
Risk assets (especially BTC) are expected to enter a favorable trading window before July. This period coincides with the expiration of a 90-day tariff ceasefire, the launch of Q2 financial reporting season, and liquidity indicators expected to peak, with multiple key factors highly overlapping in timing. Although the liquidity indicator itself has certain limitations, due to the market's widespread trust in its effectiveness, it might trigger a "self-fulfilling" expectation effect. As more enterprises incorporate BTC into their financial reserves, market circulating supply will further decrease, potentially causing an upward squeeze in BTC prices. However, as the market enters the traditional summer low-trading season, this momentum may gradually slow down.
FTX Repayment Imminent, Stablecoin Inflow May Boost Market Resonance
Another important catalyst is the upcoming FTX debt repayment process. Repayment targets accounts with debt amounts over $50,000, expected to launch around May 30, 2025. The total repayment scale is estimated between $7 billion to $10 billion, to be distributed in stablecoins, with a significant portion expected to re-enter the crypto asset market. This new liquidity might boost market momentum in June, forming a resonance effect with continuous BTC ETF fund inflows and active stablecoin trading.
The market's collaborative momentum for maintaining BTC's high position might be related to the crypto enterprise IPO plan with a total scale of $100 billion. Coinbase's recent inclusion in the S&P 500 index further demonstrates mainstream capital markets' continuing interest in incorporating crypto enterprises into core equity indices.
Disclaimer: Markets involve risks, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided. Matrixport Research: BTC upward momentum is not exhausted, may further explore upwards in summer
