Observations on the micro-level BTC spot-futures divergence: After the price rose to 106,000, the first "door" appeared, with the price dropping and spot premium continuously rising, indicating that retail short sellers are massively entering short positions, thus potentially facing further liquidation, as they have provided a large number of short-term high-leverage liquidation orders above the price;
Subsequently, the price rose again, but the spot premium was declining, suggesting that retail long traders have... massively entered, adding a large number of short-term high-leverage liquidation orders below the price;
Thus, the price now has downward liquidation momentum again... Why will BTC be so volatile on Monday morning? It's simple: after accumulating low volatility throughout the entire weekend, funds eager to trade have long been restless.
The cause of all this was precisely a wave of institutional position adjustment or spot buying last night, during which the spot premium remained essentially unchanged, indicating no spot-futures divergence;
In the subsequent pullback, short-term high-leverage futures short sellers first took the initiative, then were completely wiped out, followed by short-term high-leverage long traders taking the initiative, currently in a rather delicate state.
In any case, the key is to watch whether the spot premium can rise again during the price drop, completing a third "door" and potentially drawing a fourth door... breaking to a new high again! If the premium starts to decline with the price drop, then in this back-and-forth "door" game, the short sellers might ultimately win...
In plain terms, it's about seeing which side the spot main force tends to help in this futures long-short battle~
