火星财经消息，5 月 19 日，美国银行策略师哈内特（Michael Hartnett）关于「买传闻，卖事实」的预言前半部分已应验：上周五他预测标普 500 指数将在贸易协议框架出炉后飙升，随后该指数果然暴涨 5%。 当市场在关税头条中震荡（或连日飙升）时，哈内特已瞄准「下一轮大机会」。他通过分析 2025 年表现最佳与最差的资产得出结论：2025 年「和平交易」的表现优于「冲突交易」。哈内特提醒投资者紧盯三大关键水平：30 年期美债收益率的 5%、美元指数的 100 点，和费城半导体指数（SOX）的 5000 点。 若美债收益率与美元再度出现「收益率升、美元跌」的组合（尤其特朗普在长期美债市场失利时），美股或将迎来下一轮抛售。不过，哈内特认为 5% 的收益率仍是当前防线（失守则需撤退）。与此同时，资金对长久期资产的厌恶已达极致——生物科技 ETF（XBI）相对于经纪商 ETF（XBD）的比值跌至 2007 年 10 月以来最低，凸显出「除了债券，什么都买」的共识根深蒂固。 哈内特在报告中预测，新兴市场股票将成为新牛市的核心引擎，支撑这一趋势的三大基石是：美元走弱、美债收益率见顶，和中国经济带动。 尽管市场广度改善（84% 的 MSCI 指数成分股站上 50 日/200 日均线，逼近 88% 的超卖阈值），但美银的「牛熊指标」仍停留在 3.6，显示情绪尚未过热。 哈内特警告，债券收益率将揭示美国政策的最终结局：是重演 70 年代「通胀式和平红利」（滞胀、保护主义），还是 90 年代「通缩式和平红利」（全球化、央行独立）？他倾向于 2025 年出现美债收益率下行与通缩，但穆迪摘除美国 AAA 评级已为长期债市蒙上阴影。（金十）

<div>火星财经消息，5 月 19 日，美国银行策略师哈内特（Michael Hartnett）关于「买传闻，卖事实」的预言前半部分已应验：上周五他预测标普 500 指数将在贸易协议框架出炉后飙升，随后该指数果然暴涨 5%。 当市场在关税头条中震荡（或连日飙升）时，哈内特已瞄准「下一轮大机会」。他通过分析 2025 年表现最佳与最差的资产得出结论：2025 年「和平交易」的表现优于「冲突交易」。哈内特提醒投资者紧盯三大关键水平：30 年期美债收益率的 5%、美元指数的 100 点，和费城半导体指数（SOX）的 5000 点。 若美债收益率与美元再度出现「收益率升、美元跌」的组合（尤其特朗普在长期美债市场失利时），美股或将迎来下一轮抛售。不过，哈内特认为 5% 的收益率仍是当前防线（失守则需撤退）。与此同时，资金对长久期资产的厌恶已达极致——生物科技 ETF（XBI）相对于经纪商 ETF（XBD）的比值跌至 2007 年 10 月以来最低，凸显出「除了债券，什么都买」的共识根深蒂固。 哈内特在报告中预测，新兴市场股票将成为新牛市的核心引擎，支撑这一趋势的三大基石是：美元走弱、美债收益率见顶，和中国经济带动。 尽管市场广度改善（84% 的 MSCI 指数成分股站上 50 日/200 日均线，逼近 88% 的超卖阈值），但美银的「牛熊指标」仍停留在 3.6，显示情绪尚未过热。 哈内特警告，债券收益率将揭示美国政策的最终结局：是重演 70 年代「通胀式和平红利」（滞胀、保护主义），还是 90 年代「通缩式和平红利」（全球化、央行独立）？他倾向于 2025 年出现美债收益率下行与通缩，但穆迪摘除美国 AAA 评级已为长期债市蒙上阴影。（金十）</div>

美银策略师：今年「和平交易」的表现优于「冲突交易」，投资者需紧盯三大关键指标

<AR> Mars Finance News, on May 19, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett's prophecy of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" has been partially verified: Last Friday, he predicted that the S&P 500 index would surge after the trade agreement framework was released, and the index indeed soared by 5%. 

When the market was fluctuating (or rising for days) amid tariff headlines, Hartnett has already targeted the "next big opportunity". By analyzing the best and worst-performing assets in 2025, he concluded that "peace trading" will outperform "conflict trading". Hartnett reminded investors to closely watch three key levels: 5% for 30-year US Treasury yield, 100 points for the US dollar index, and 5000 points for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).

If US Treasury yields and the US dollar again show a combination of "rising yields, falling dollar" (especially when Trump fails in the long-term bond market), US stocks may face the next round of sell-offs. However, Hartnett believes that 5% yield is still the current defense line (retreat if breached). Meanwhile, capital's aversion to long-term assets has reached its extreme - the ratio of Biotech ETF (XBI) to Broker ETF (XBD) has dropped to its lowest since October 2007, highlighting the deeply rooted consensus of "buying anything except bonds".

Hartnett predicted in his report that emerging market stocks will become the core engine of the new bull market, supported by three pillars: a weakening US dollar, peaking US Treasury yields, and economic momentum from China.

Although market breadth has improved (84% of MSCI index components are above 50-day/200-day moving averages, approaching the 88% oversold threshold), Bank of America's "bull-bear indicator" remains at 3.6, indicating sentiment has not yet overheated.

Hartnett warned that bond yields will reveal the ultimate outcome of US policy: whether it will replay the 1970s "inflationary peace dividend" (stagflation, protectionism) or the 1990s "deflationary peace dividend" (globalization, central bank independence). He leans towards US Treasury yields declining and deflation in 2025, but Moody's removal of the US AAA rating has already cast a shadow over the long-term bond market. </AR>

<div>On May 19, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett's prediction of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" has partially come true last Friday when he predicted the S&P 500 index would surge after the trade agreement framework was released, and the index indeed the index soared by 5%. While the market fluctuates (or rises continuously) in tariff headlines, Hartnett is aiming for the "next big opportunity". By analyzing the best and and  2025 he concluded that "peaceful trade trading will outbetterperformance "conflict trade". Hartnett reminds investors to closely watch three key levels: 5% of 30-year US Treasury yield,, 100 points of the US Dollar and  SOof 000 points . yield and US US dollar again appear in the "yield rising, dollar falling" combination (especially when Trump fails in the long-term US bond market may may face the next round of sell-off.,ett believes that %  5% is still the current defense line (retreat if breached).,'s aaversion long-assets has has reached its extreme - the Biotech ETF (XBI) toETF (XB() has fallen to the lowest since October 007 2the buy everything except bonds" deeply rorenoted. In the report, Harpredictsett predicted that emerging market stocks will become the core engine of the new bull market, supported by three cornerstones: a weakening US dollar, US bond yields peaking, and China's economy.. Despite improved market breadth (84% of MSCI index components are above 50-day/200-day movingages approaching the 88% oversold threshold), Bank of America's "bull and bear indicator" remains at 3.6, indicating that sentiment has not yet overhe.atedtnthat bond yields will reveal the ultimate final outcome of US policy: whether to replay the 1970s "inflationary peace dividend" ( 1990s "deflationary peace dividend" (globalization, independence)? He tends to He towards a decline in US bond yields and deflation in 2025, but Moody's removal of the US AAA rating has cast a shadow over the long-term bond market. (Golden Ten)</div>

Bank of America strategist: "Peace trading" outperformed "conflict trading" this year, and investors need to keep a close eye on three key indicators

Bybit has officially become a member of the International Finance Centre in Da Nang, marking a significant step in the effort to build Da Nang into a regional financial and fintech hub.

Bybit digital asset exchange officially joins the International Financial Center in Da Nang.

A quick overview of institutional and trader opinions on the market outlook.

Is Bitcoin about to choose a direction?

Today we saw gold, silver, and palladium all hit new highs! Since the correction at the end of October, gold has been trading above the 25-35 day moving average; silver is rising along the four-hour moving average; and palladium is rising along the three-day moving average.
Synchronization: This "synchronized new highs" usually signifies the start of a major trend. Gold provides "stability," silver provides "elasticity," while the addition of palladium indicates a dual surge in industrial and investment demand.
In this clear upward trend, trading volume has not weakened significantly and no bearish structure has emerged. Don't try to short the short at the top; otherwise, you'll end up with...