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Arthur Hayes is an iconic figure in Bitcoin's early days, who co-founded the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 and later faced legal issues for violating US regulatory requirements. Recently, Hayes admitted to insufficient anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation and paid fines, but received a full pardon from Trump at the beginning of the year.
Currently, Hayes focuses on managing his family fund Maelstrom and remains an influential figure in the crypto asset space. Fortune contributor Anna Tutova interviewed him during Token-2049 in Dubai, where Hayes shared his views on the current market - including predicting BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and potentially break $1 million by 2028.
In the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and Altcoin markets and explained why he chose to allocate 20% of his assets to gold.
Below is the full interview, edited and condensed.
Q1: About the Real US Deficit
Anna: You called the Treasury's recent borrowing operations a "magic trick". Why?
Arthur Hayes: The Treasury has been consuming its "checking account" (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using "extraordinary measures" (underfunded government projects) to avoid borrowing limits, causing the TGA to drop from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter, which means $300 billion in spending was achieved without new debt, and the actual borrowing scale far exceeds official data.
This is confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, theoretically the US government cannot net increase borrowing, but they maintain spending through various accounting tricks without breaking the limit. From January to March 2025, the Treasury's borrowing scale was 22% higher than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually expanding.
Q2: About Market Liquidity
Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Arthur Hayes: I believe the US government's actual borrowing needs are much larger than publicly disclosed data, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and need maximum leverage through the banking system for these debts. The ultimate result is further global dollar liquidity flooding, as the US government continues to increase spending.
In short, this is the essence of repo operations, and why I believe it will boost market liquidity. Based on this, I judge that Bitcoin bottomed on April 9th, and as the government continues borrowing and Bessent ensures low-cost financing, Bitcoin's price will continue to rise significantly.
Q3: About Altcoin Season
Anna: So at what point does Bitcoin need to rise to trigger an Altcoin season? What are the key factors driving its start?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin needs to break $110,000 and continue to rise with volume to the $150,000-$200,000 range. I expect this to happen in summer or early Q3 this year, after which funds will start rotating into various Altcoins.
Q4: About Bull Market Expectations
Anna: Do you think the upcoming Altcoin market will see crazy super-cycle hyper-growth like in 2021, or just a mild rebound?
Arthur Hayes: It's unlikely to reproduce the 2021 scenario where all coins surged 100x. The market will have new narrative hotspots, and some coins might surge wildly, but those long-stagnant "dinosaur coins" in your portfolio aren't rising for a reason. Many projects have inflated valuations, low liquidity, lack real users and revenue, and rely solely on exchange listing hype. Now that prices have dropped 95%, I don't think they'll perform brilliantly in the next cycle.
Q5: About Personal Return Expectations
Anna: What are your expected returns in this market? What target prices and return rates do you typically set?
Arthur Hayes: At least outperform Bitcoin's gains. If we decide to allocate funds, the target assets must exceed Bitcoin's returns.
Q6: About Trump
Anna: What are your expectations for Trump's crypto policies?
Arthur Hayes: His team should introduce crypto-friendly policies, but this doesn't mean the specific projects you hold will definitely appreciate, nor that policies will advance according to your expected timeline.
Market expectations are currently too high, with some even believing crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But remember, Trump is a politician with many higher-priority matters to handle, so everyone needs to be patient.
Q7: About Gold
Anna: With increasing market uncertainty, we've seen gold surge significantly. Have you allocated gold assets, or are you entirely focused on cryptocurrencies?
Arthur Hayes: I've long held gold, storing physical gold bars in vaults and holding substantial gold mining stock - which remains undervalued given gold's price surge. I believe gold has significant upside potential as central banks continue to increase holdings.
More importantly, I expect the US to significantly revalue its gold reserves, diluting debt by devaluing the dollar against gold. By the end of this market cycle, gold prices might reach $10,000 to $20,000.
Gold represents about 20% of my personal investment portfolio.
Q8: About ETH vs SOL
Anna: That's quite a high proportion! Currently, there's much debate about ETH and SOL. Which do you favor more?
Arthur Hayes: I believe ETH has more upside potential, though it's currently doubted - everyone thinks it's underperforming, with development teams repeatedly making mistakes. But the reality is it maintains the highest total value locked (TVL), has the largest developer community, and is the most secure PoS blockchain. Yes, despite its price performance being unsatisfactory from 2020 to now.
SOL is obviously performing well, but if I were to allocate fiat now, I believe ETH might outperform SOL in the bull market over the next 18-24 months.
Q9: About $1 Million BTC
Anna: You previously predicted Bitcoin would reach $1 million. When will this target be achieved?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million by the end of 2028, before the end of Trump's presidential term.
Q10: About Annual Market Expectations
Anna: How do you expect the crypto market to move this year?
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's dominance will continue rising, potentially approaching $200,000 in this rally. Then Altcoin season will arrive, and we'll see some interesting phenomena. By year-end, Bitcoin's target price is around $250,000.
