Entering mid-May, the macro data window period brought temporary calm, but the crypto market sentiment continues to heat up. While mainstream assets oscillate upward, funds are beginning to rotate towards high-quality Altcoins with solid fundamentals. In this issue of HTX DeepThink#5, HTX ResearchChloe (@ChloeTalk1) brings a market macro outlook and strategic layout analysis, focusing on the sector rotation potential of the SUI ecosystem and the AttentionFi track.
Macro Outlook: Market Sentiment Warming Up, Slightly Bullish in the Short Term
This week lacks major economic data in the US, with market focus on Federal Reserve officials' comments about "only one rate cut this year". Options market shows bullish sentiment dominates: Call/Put ratio reached 1.55, with call option premiums continuously rising; while short-term implied volatility (IV) is compressed to an 18-month low of 35-40%.
This means the market is "high in sentiment, calm in volatility" - under these conditions, Bitcoin may attack new highs within 30-45 days, breaking through the 10.5-11.5k USD range. However, this "high sentiment + low volatility" often masks risks of high leverage accumulation; once volatility spikes or BTC effectively breaks below 10k USD, it could trigger a deleveraging stampede adjustment.
Market Strategy: Rotate to Quality Altcoins, Capture Spillover Funds
In operation, while controlling total position, rotating part of funds to high-quality Altcoins with solid fundamentals and strong liquidity may capture the spillover momentum from Bitcoin's rise. This issue of HTX DeepThink #5 selects potential track targets for reference.
SUI Ecosystem: New Highs on Main Chain, Leading Projects Still Undervalued
SUI main chain market cap recently hit a historical high, but its ecosystem projects have not yet seen systematic price recovery. The current period might be a key window for low-position layout of ecosystem leaders. HTX has already listed two high-potential SUI projects: Haedal and Bluefin.
● Haedal: SUI chain's top LST protocol, occupying 76% market share, with extremely high network effects.
● Bluefin: SUI ecosystem's main Perp DEX, with a market cap of only $31.6 million, yet achieving $8.2 million annual revenue, with a market-to-sales ratio of just 3.8x, significantly undervalued compared to GMX (9.1x) and Drift (12.4x). Upcoming V2 upgrade will introduce veToken model and user incentives, potentially driving trading activity and protocol revenue.
Against the backdrop of continuous SUI main chain heat, Haedal and Bluefin, as core infrastructure projects, have dual potential for valuation repair and Beta upside, worth medium-term attention and layout.
AttentionFi Track: Capturing Bull Market Traffic Dividends
In the current bull market stage, with new projects emerging constantly, Web3 traffic costs are rapidly increasing. From traditional user acquisition models, user acquisition cost is typically determined by traffic × conversion rate: for example, on platforms like Telegram, Google, or Xiaohongshu, each click costs about $0.5-1, with an average conversion rate of 10%, meaning projects need to spend $5-10 to acquire one retained user. Kaito provides a more efficient "traffic engine": its API charges based on "reputation × high-quality interaction", improving user retention 3-4 times under the same budget, reducing per-user cost to $2-3, significantly lower than other channels, while early cooperation with multiple hot projects has accumulated a massive user pool. This cost reduction has driven Kaito's rapid expansion - project access increased from 30 to 120 in 3 months, with call volume quadrupling.
Meanwhile, $KAITO community staking has reached 19.7 million tokens, with the protocol having repurchased and burned 3.7 million tokens, further enhancing token price potential. On Base chain's IDO platform Virtuals, users only need to stake ≥5,000 $KAITO to obtain Virgen points for IDO quota, creating a "staking → points → arbitrage" closed loop. It's worth noting that for projects wanting to list on Kaito's Yapper Leaderboard, significant voting costs and $KAITO staking are required; teams can use GiveRep for zero-cost reputation screening and seed community building, then later connect with Kaito for massive operations, similar to relationships between large and small exchanges. GiveRep is closely connected with SUI Foundation, collaborates with popular SUI projects like ika and Typus, with some airdrop expectations. Currently, HTX has listed $KAITO. In the context of increasingly fierce bull market traffic competition, Kaito becomes a noteworthy potential asset through low-cost precise user reach and protocol deflationary design.
Note: This content is not investment advice and does not constitute any investment product offer, solicitation, or recommendation.
About HTX DeepThink
HTX DeepThink is a crypto market insight column created by HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and crypto industry hotspots, injecting new thinking power into the market, helping readers "find order in chaos" in the unpredictable crypto world.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research department of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis of cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to offering data-based insights and strategic foresight, playing a crucial role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting wise decisions in the digital asset field. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, leading industry thought development and promoting deep understanding of constantly changing market dynamics.
