According to PANews on May 23rd, the Binance Research Institute report shows that bond market volatility is affecting the cryptocurrency market through multiple channels. First, risk appetite transmission, as bond yields rise, leading to tightened liquidity in the crypto market, and the MOVE index surge often signals a Bitcoin pullback. Second, opportunity cost effect, with high real interest rates making bonds more attractive than Bitcoin, and Bitcoin experiencing significant declines when real interest rates spiked in 2022. Third, macroeconomic feedback, with economic recession concerns potentially triggering capital withdrawal from the crypto market. Fourth, internal amplification mechanism, where DeFi and stablecoins are more vulnerable under bond impacts, and liquidity tightening can easily trigger chain failures in leveraged crypto systems. The report also proposed three scenarios: in a "soft landing," where inflation falls and interest rates are cut, it would benefit Bitcoin and DeFi recovery; a systemic crisis could lead to a "Crypto Winter". Additionally, risks such as US debt ceiling reset and persistent inflation in 2025 need attention.
