Source: Magazine
Author: Matt Crosby
Original Title: Are Longing-Term Holders Starting to Sell?
Translation and Compilation: BitpushNews
After experiencing a volatile period, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark and reached a new historical high, injecting new confidence into the market. However, with the price increase, a key question arises: Are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders—Long-Term Holders—starting to sell?
This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is cause for concern or simply a healthy part of the Bitcoin market cycle.
Signs of Profit-Taking Emerging
**Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)** provides instant insight into the network's realized profits. Focusing on recent weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The concentration of green bars indicates that a considerable number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000-$75,000 range to a new high above $100,000.
Figure 1: Spent Output Profit Ratio indicates significant recent profit realization.
However, while this may raise short-term concerns about upward resistance, it must be understood within a broader on-chain context. Such behavior is not uncommon in a bull market and cannot be used alone as a cycle top signal.
Long-Term Holder Supply Continues to Grow
"Long-Term Holder Supply" refers to the total Bitcoin held by wallets with a holding time exceeding 155 days, and this indicator continues to climb despite the price surge. This trend does not necessarily mean new buying is occurring, but rather indicates that Bitcoin is "aging" into long-term holding status over time, without being transferred or sold.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply notably increases.
In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding, transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic typically seen in the early or middle stages of a bull market, without showing signs of large-scale distribution.
HODL Waves Analysis
To delve deeper, we used HODL Waves data, which categorizes wallets by their coin-holding age. Focusing on wallets holding coins for 6 months or longer, we found that over 70% of Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.
Figure 3: HODL Waves analysis shows medium to long-term investors hold the majority of Bitcoin.
Interestingly, while this proportion remains high, it has begun to slightly decline, suggesting some long-term holders may be selling, even as long-term holder supply continues to grow. The primary driver of long-term supply growth seems to be short-term holders gradually "aging" into the 155-day-plus holding bracket, rather than massive new fund inflows.
Figure 4: Long-Term Holder Supply change rate is inversely related to Bitcoin price.
Using raw data from the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the change rate of long-term holder balances by wallet coin-holding age. Historically, when this indicator significantly drops, it often coincides with cycle tops. Conversely, when the indicator sharply rises, it typically corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.
Short-Term Changes and Distribution Ratio
To enhance the precision of these signals, the data can be more finely segmented by comparing "recent market entrants (0-1 month)" with "medium-term holders (1-5 years)". This coin-age distribution comparison can provide more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.
Figure 5: Coin-age distribution ratio provides valuable market insights
We found that when the proportion of 1-5 year holders relative to new entrants sharply declines, it historically aligns with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio rapidly increases, with more Bitcoin flowing into the hands of more experienced investors, it often precedes significant price increases.
Changes in long-term investor behavior are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and price movement sustainability. Historical data shows that long-term holders, by buying during panic and holding long-term, often outperform short-term traders in profitability. By analyzing Bitcoin's age distribution structure, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.
Conclusion
Currently, long-term holders are showing only slight selling behavior, far from the scale seen at previous cycle tops. While profit-taking exists, its pace appears entirely manageable and part of a healthy market environment.
Considering the current bull market stage and the participation of institutional and retail investors, the data suggests we are still in a structurally strong phase, with further price appreciation possible against the backdrop of continuing new fund inflows.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN
BitPush TG Community: https://t.me/BitPushCommunity
BitPush TG Subscription: https://t.me/bitpush
