Is the Four-Year Cycle Theory Outdated? The Rules of Survival in the New Normal of Cryptocurrency

Original Author: Haotian (X: @tmel0211)

I just finished chatting with several industry leaders, and everyone was discussing the same thing... **The "Four-Year Cycle" Theory is Completely Outdated!** If you're still holding onto dreams of getting rich and fantasizing about "ten or hundred-fold opportunities in a bull market," you might have already been completely abandoned by the market. Why? Because smart money has already discovered a secret: **Current Crypto no longer follows one strategy, but is running 4 completely different gameplay cycles simultaneously:** Each gameplay cycle has a completely different rhythm, approach, and profit logic. ## Bitcoin Super Cycle: Retail Investors Exit, Ten-Year Slow Bull Likely Becomes Inevitable The traditional halving cycle "script"? Completely invalidated! BTC has evolved from a "speculative target" to an "institutional asset allocation". The capital scale and allocation logic of Wall Street, listed companies, and ETFs are entirely different from retail investors' "bull-bear switching" approach. The key change? **Retail investor chips are being massively transferred, while institutional funds represented by MicroStrategy are frantically entering the market.** This fundamental restructuring of chip structure is redefining BTC's price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics. What are retail investors facing? A double squeeze of "time cost" and "opportunity cost". Institutions can afford a 3-5 year holding cycle to wait for BTC's long-term value realization, but retail investors? Clearly, they cannot have such patience and capital deployment capabilities. In my view, **we will likely see a BTC super slow bull lasting over ten years.** Annual returns stabilizing in the 20-30% range, with significantly reduced daily volatility, more resembling a steady-growth tech stock. As for BTC's price ceiling? From the current retail investor perspective, it's even difficult to predict. ## MEME Attention Short Wave Cycle: From Slum Paradise to Professional Harvesting Ground The MEME long bull theory still holds. During technical narrative expression gaps, MEME narratives will always fill the market's "boredom vacuum" in sync with emotions, funds, and attention. What's the essence of MEME? **It's a "instant gratification" speculative vehicle.** No whitepaper needed, no technical verification required, no roadmap necessary - just a symbol that can make people smile or resonate is enough. From cat and dog culture to political MEME, from AI concept packaging to community IP incubation, **MEME has evolved into a complete "emotion monetization" industrial chain.** Critically, MEME's "quick and short" characteristics make it a barometer of market sentiment and a capital reservoir. **When funds are abundant, MEME becomes the first choice for hot money; when funds are scarce, MEME becomes the last speculative safe haven.** But reality is cruel. The MEME market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition". The difficulty for ordinary retail investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation is rising exponentially. **The legendary stories of P Junior's patient accumulation might become increasingly rare. The entry of studios, scientists, and large investors will make this once "slum paradise" intensely competitive.** [The rest of the translation follows the same professional and precise approach]