The global macroeconomic environment is experiencing profound adjustments, and the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin's price fluctuations, are increasingly influenced by complex macro conditions. Recently, HTX Research, a research institution under HTX, released a new research report titled "New Macro Landscape and Bitcoin Outlook: In-depth Perspective on Liquidity, Risk Appetite, Policy Negotiations, and Investment Strategies", comprehensively analyzing the impact of the global macroeconomic environment on the Bitcoin market and providing investors with a clear market outlook and investment guidance.
Bitcoin Market Outlook under Macro Environment: Liquidity and Market Risk Appetite
Currently, the global macro environment is complex and volatile. Factors such as the Fed's cooling rate cut expectations, continued quantitative tightening (QT), the US Treasury TGA account reflux, and the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have collectively led to tight short-term liquidity. Fed Chairman Powell maintains a "data-first" stance, with strong US employment (April non-farm added 177,000, unemployment rate 4.2%) and potential tariff inflation impact (Q3 CPI may return to over 3%), reducing year-end rate cut expectations from three to two (September and December), limiting liquidity pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's rate hike and Japanese yen carry trade liquidation further tighten global liquidity. In the short term (next 1-3 months), market liquidity expectations are tight, potentially limiting Bitcoin and other risk assets' upward space, but optimistic risk appetite sentiment is expected to persist, with caution towards technical corrections and volatility from sudden news.
In the medium term (3-12 months), liquidity will gradually improve, with significant uncertainty in market risk appetite. Bitcoin market opportunities and challenges coexist. If the Fed starts rate cuts in the second half of 2025 and ends QT, coupled with coordinated global central bank policy easing, liquidity may marginally improve, providing a rebound window for Bitcoin. Factors like US-China tariff 90-day buffer period negotiations, easing geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine and India-Pakistan regions, continued institutional entry (global listed companies holding over 688,000 Bitcoins, 3.28% of total supply), and US federal and state "strategic Bitcoin reserve" policy explorations may boost market risk appetite and support Bitcoin prices. However, if inflation exceeds expectations or geopolitical risks escalate, risk-averse sentiment could pressure the market. Investors need to closely monitor Fed policies, macro data, tariff negotiations, and regulatory developments, and flexibly adjust strategies.
Positive Signals of Crypto-Friendly Policies in Policy Negotiations: Stablecoin Regulation Facing Potential Relaxation?
Policy negotiations are profoundly affecting the crypto market. On May 21, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance Draft", establishing a licensing system for fiat stablecoin issuers and improving the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities. More profound policy impacts are occurring in the United States. The Trump administration's "Huge Beautiful Tax Law" plan (tax reduction of $5 trillion over the next 10 years) stimulates market sentiment short-term, but expanded fiscal deficit and debt ceiling issues may cause liquidity fluctuations. On the regulatory front, the US Senate is pushing stablecoin legislation - the "GENIUS Act" stablecoin bill negotiations have reached 90% consensus, proposing a 100% high-quality asset-backed regulatory framework to provide standardized guidance for the stablecoin market. Additionally, US stock tokenization exploration is accelerating, with the SEC and traditional financial institutions (like JPMorgan) actively positioning, expecting real-world asset tokenization to reach $18.9 trillion by 2030, expanding new scenarios for digital assets. US federal and state "strategic Bitcoin reserve" legislative attempts (like New Hampshire's H.B. 302) further elevate Bitcoin's strategic status, providing policy endorsement for institutional entry.
Seizing the Opportunity: HTX Launches USD1 and Multiple Compliant Stablecoins with Zero Fee Exchange Service
Under global policy relaxation expectations and regulatory transparency trends, stablecoins as the liquidity foundation and value anchor of the crypto market are increasingly prominent. HTX is seizing market opportunities, recently launching multiple compliant stablecoins, including USD1 (World Liberty Financial USD), USDQ (Quantoz), EURQ (Quantoz), USDR (StablR), EURR (StablR), meeting users' diverse investment needs and improving capital efficiency. To celebrate USD1's launch and lower user entry barriers, HTX is offering zero fee exchange service until December 31, 2025, at 23:59 (GMT+8), with USD1/USDT spot trading pair enjoying zero fee benefits. Users can maximize capital utilization without additional costs. HTX is committed to providing global users with safe, efficient, and high-quality crypto financial services. Additionally, in investment strategies, HTX Research report analyzed multiple stablecoin financial products, including Backpack's USD lending with approximately 4.94% annual yield, Resolv's USR with up to 15% annual yield, Aave+Pendle combination strategy with around 10% annual yield, Falcon's USDf with over 10% annual yield, and Coinshift's csUSDL with about 10% annual yield.
The report concludes that the Bitcoin market needs to be cautious of short-term liquidity pressure and volatility risks, but may see a rebound in the medium to long term driven by policy clarity and institutional entry. HTX will continue to follow market and policy trends, helping users capture opportunities and steadily increase value in the complex crypto market.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research department of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis of cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a crucial role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting wise decisions in the digital asset field. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, leading industry thought development and promoting deep understanding of constantly changing market dynamics.
