The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently released key signals that may accelerate the approval process for the Solana ETF.
According to Blockworks, citing informed sources, the SEC recently notified several asset management companies to submit updated Solana ETF registration files (S-1 forms) within 7 days. The SEC specifically requested revisions to clauses about "in-kind redemptions" and "staking mechanisms", suggesting potential allowance for Solana ETF to include staking rewards. This development is interpreted by the market as a shift towards a more positive regulatory attitude, with one source estimating that these updates could lead to Solana ETF approval within three to five weeks.
Following this news, SOL's price briefly rose 5% to over $165, falling back to around $163.6 at the time of writing.
The SEC's core revision requirements primarily focus on two aspects: language for in-kind redemptions and how issuers will handle staking. For investors:
In-kind redemptions: This means ETF shareholders can choose to receive equivalent SOL tokens instead of cash when redeeming fund shares. This mechanism is typically considered more tax-efficient and operationally flexible, making it more attractive to investors.
Staking: As a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain, Solana allows token holders to participate in network validation and earn rewards through "staking". If the SEC allows including the staking mechanism, investors can not only benefit from price appreciation but also indirectly enjoy staking rewards, significantly increasing the SOL ETF's appeal as a more diverse investment product.
The institutional lineup applying for this product is impressive, including Fidelity, VanEck, Grayscale, and other "original teams" behind Bitcoin ETFs. Notably, Grayscale plans to convert its existing SOL trust product into a spot ETF, replicating its successful approach with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Market observers point out that CME exchange launched Solana futures in February 2024, a "preliminary action" highly similar to the process before Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, further strengthening expectations.
Optimistic Approval Timeline: Potentially as Early as July?
Sources estimate that after updating these S-1 files, the Solana ETF could receive final approval within three to five weeks.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart is also very optimistic. He expects approval this year, potentially as early as July. Although the SEC's final deadline for 19b-4 files (listing rule change applications) is in October, Seyffart believes the SEC may now prioritize Solana and staking ETF applications, meaning the final decision could come earlier than planned, requiring close collaboration between issuers, industry participants, the SEC, and its crypto task force.
In April, Bloomberg industry research analyst Eric Balchunas raised the SOL ETF approval probability from 70% to 90%. In his latest tweet, he stated: "Get ready for a potential Altcoin ETF summer, with Solana potentially leading the way (and some basket products)."
SOL Short-Term Trend
Referencing Bitcoin ETF historical experience, BTC price rose approximately 60% in the three months after approval. If Solana replicates this gain, its price could potentially reach the $250-300 range from the current $160. However, this optimistic expectation should be viewed cautiously—the Ethereum ETF case has proven that approval doesn't necessarily directly drive price surge.
From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Grayhoood observed that SOL's technical indicators like RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and CCI all show positive signals, especially after breaking the $154 resistance, indicating increasing buying pressure and potential for further price appreciation.
From a long-term perspective, the 30-day and annual moving averages (declining 5.3% and 2.9% respectively) still show that recent gains have not fully reversed the previous bearish structure. If it continues to break through, resistance levels are around $181/187/194.
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