4 Scenarios of Iran's Potential Reactions - Iran only attacks Israel (most likely scenario): Oil prices increase by 10-20 USD/barrel. - Iran attacks US troops in the Middle East: Oil prices surge to 80-90 USD/barrel. - Iran attacks oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf (low probability): Oil prices surge to 85-105 USD/barrel, which could increase global inflation expectations. - Causing disruption or closing the Hormuz Strait (worst-case scenario): Oil prices could surge to 120 USD, and inflation could reach crisis levels. The Hormuz Strait is an important waterway where over 20% of global maritime oil transportation passes. If this strait is blocked, it will cause significant global impacts, including surging oil prices and global energy price instability.