BTC price prediction: Technical consolidation is accumulating strength, can the institutional bullish target of $200,000 be expected by the end of the year?

• Technical Key Points: Bollinger Bands Narrowing Signals Potential Reversal, MACD Momentum Awaiting Strengthening
• Capital Flow: ETF Short-Term Outflow vs. Long-Term Corporate and Institutional Accumulation
• Psychological Level: $120,000 is Key Resistance Before Breaking $200,000

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-Term Trend and Key Levels

According to BTCC financial analyst Sophia's technical analysis, BTC's current price is 107,723.96 USDT, slightly above the 20-day moving average of 105,665.28, indicating solid short-term support. The MACD indicator shows a negative value (-654.57), suggesting weak momentum, but the Bollinger Bands are narrowing (upper band 109,342.92/lower band 101,987.65), which may signal imminent volatility expansion. Sophia noted: 'If the price remains above the middle band, it will test the upper band resistance; conversely, breaking below the middle band could retest the lower band support.'

Market Sentiment Divergence: Long-Term Holders Cashing Out vs. Institutional Accumulation

BTCC analyst Sophia interprets recent news, indicating short-term pressure from early holders taking profits and ETF fund outflows, but strong support from massive corporate purchases (demand exceeding ETF in 2025 first half) and institutional bullish expectations (such as Standard Chartered Bank's Q3 prediction of $135,000). 'HODLing dominates the market and short-term holders show resilience,' Sophia emphasized, 'Under macro uncertainty, the year-end target of $200,000 requires breaking through the technical key resistance zone of 115,000-120,000 USDT.'

Green Minerals AS has reached a structural financing agreement worth 2.5 billion Norwegian kroner with the global investment group LDA Capital. The transaction was announced on July 2, 2025, granting Green Minerals a put option to issue new shares within the next 12 months based on market conditions. In return, LDA Capital received the right to subscribe to 1% of the company's shares at 6.95 Norwegian kroner per share.

These funds will primarily be used to strengthen Green Minerals' Bit asset management strategy. Executive Chairman Ståle Rodahl emphasized that this financing mechanism is a strategic tool to enhance per-share Bit indicators while maintaining fiscal prudence. Rodahl stated: "This is consistent with our long-term vision of increasing shareholder exposure to Bit value proposition."

Bit HODLing Dominates Market, Short-Term Holders Show Resilience

Bit rebounded to $107,000, leaving most investors in an unrealized loss state, but the market still demonstrates strong HODL behavior. The latest glassnode report shows total book profits near $1.2 trillion, slightly below the $1.3 trillion peak in December 2024, with BTC finding support near the $98,300 cost basis of short-term holders.

The analysis company views this stability amid volatility as a bullish signal, indicating potential strong market support. Currently, investors' average return is 125%, far below the 180% peak when Bit first broke $100,000 in March 2024. glassnode warns that these massive book gains could transform into selling pressure if market sentiment changes.

On-chain indicators show suppressed market activity, with the Liveliness indicator confirming HODLer dominance. Analysts noted: "Current price range is insufficient to trigger massive profit-taking," emphasizing that the market remains long-term oriented despite recent price increases.

Can BTC Price Reach $200,000?

Combining technical and fundamental analysis, BTCC analyst Sophia proposed a three-stage path:

"Currently, focus on the $109,342 resistance level," Sophia added, "If the daily closing price stabilizes above this level for three consecutive days, the probability of exceeding expectations will significantly increase."