BTC 109K! US stocks hit new highs while employment concerns run parallel: S&P 500 rises, ADP report unexpectedly releases economic warnings

On Wednesday (Eastern Time), the U.S. stock market once again set a new historical high, but market optimism was pulled back to reality by an unexpected employment data report. On one hand, U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, boosting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices; on the other hand, the ADP employment data showed a decline in private sector employment, raising market expectations of economic slowdown and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Trade Boost: S&P 500 Reaches New High

U.S. President Trump announced on Wednesday via Truth Social that a new trade agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Vietnam, including a 20% tariff on imported goods from Vietnam. This news boosted investor confidence, driving the S&P 500 index up 0.3% and reaching a historical high during trading. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, rose 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly dropped 32 points, a decline of about 0.1%.

Following the news, companies related to Vietnam's production chain also moved. Nike's stock price jumped 3%, reflecting the market's re-evaluation of Vietnam's manufacturing supply chain. About half of Nike's shoe products come from Vietnam and China.

ADP Data "Unexpectedly Cold": Private Sector Loses 33,000 Jobs

However, economic indicators cast a significant shadow. The latest ADP report shows that the U.S. private sector unexpectedly lost 33,000 job openings in June, the first monthly decline since March 2023. In contrast, the market had originally expected employment to increase by 100,000, creating a clear divergence.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise: July Meeting Becomes Key Observation Point

The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July has risen from 21% yesterday to nearly 24%. Analysts believe that if the upcoming official government employment report is also below expectations, the Fed may put rate cuts on the agenda.

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, stated: "If Friday's employment report also shows weakness, the probability of a Fed rate cut will significantly increase." He also noted that Fed Chairman Powell had previously stated that the central bank might have already cut rates if Trump had not announced tariff increases earlier in the year.

Market Atmosphere Thick with Anticipation: Tax Reform Bill Becomes Another Variable

Besides trade and employment data, investors are also closely watching the latest progress of the tax and expenditure bill. The bill narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday and will now return to the House for review, but some Republican lawmakers still have reservations, and the bill's final fate remains uncertain.

Tuesday's market performance was also divergent, with the Dow rising 400 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq fell due to widespread weakness in tech stocks. Funds are clearly shifting towards raw materials and healthcare stocks, indicating that investors are rebalancing their portfolios to prepare for potential economic headwinds.

Cryptocurrency Synchronized Observation: Bitcoin and Mainstream Currencies Generally Rising

While U.S. stocks were pulled by trade and economic data, the cryptocurrency market showed relative stability. According to the latest quotes:

• Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $109,433.10, up 2.97% in 24 hours, with a monthly increase of nearly 4.91%.

• Ethereum (ETH) was priced at $2,535.79, rising 5.03% over the past week.

• Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) recorded weekly increases of 5.93% and 3.00% respectively.

• In comparison, stablecoins USDT and USDC had extremely small price fluctuations, remaining around $1.

Among these, Dogecoin (DOGE) performed notably, surging 5.55% in 24 hours, becoming one of the top-performing cryptocurrencies.

U.S. stocks were pulled between trade news and employment data, with market volatility likely to increase in the short term. The next key observation points will be the official non-farm employment data and the Fed's policy direction. The cryptocurrency market remained stable with gains, reflecting signs of funds seeking safe havens. As various data continue to emerge, investors should closely monitor macroeconomic trend changes.