Written by: Ethean
Conclusion first
This depends on whether two key conditions can be met:
Whether stablecoins are more convenient, cheaper, and cover more scenarios than existing payment methods
Whether a complete ecosystem that is "usable, user-friendly, and trustworthy" can be quickly built within a compliant framework
I. Why Didn't the "QR Code Payment Era" Happen in Hong Kong?
The reasons are very practical and straightforward:
Cash Only can save transaction fees
Octopus Card is accepted because too many people use it, forcing merchants to adapt
In comparison, Alipay/WeChat have slightly lower transaction fees, but
No user base
No "Meituan + Taobao + DiDi" super ecosystem
In Hong Kong, they are "standalone wallets" with limited functions and usage scenarios
So they can only serve as auxiliary payment methods for tourists.
II. Could Hong Kong Directly Leap to Stablecoin Payments?
Currently, stablecoins must overcome two core thresholds to truly enter daily life:
1. User experience is not yet "lifestyle-oriented"
Current stablecoin discussions are still focused on: institutional settlement / cross-border payments / RWA asset issuance
How do users "buy coins → pay → receive → exit"? The process is complex, lacks incentives, and has high educational costs.
Stablecoins are still far from being as convenient as Octopus Card/WeChat/Alipay.
2. Compliance is "legal" but far from implementation
1) Compliance "with license" ≠ Payment implementation
Hong Kong will officially launch stablecoin licensing in 2025, but currently:
Regulatory details and approval processes are still being tested
Official issuance and promotion to the retail market are still waiting
2) Wallet and payment gateway ecosystems are not yet built
Regulation mainly covers the issuance layer, but are there mature and easy-to-use wallet apps? Are there ecosystems seamlessly integrated with merchant POS and payment gateways? Currently, they are still building the licensing system and have not entered the phase of developing mass-market applications.
3) Actual implementation of regulations needs time to verify
Prerequisite for using stablecoins: users must believe they can be exchanged, quickly and stably. Even with a license, will the market accept it? How will regulations guarantee redemption promises? If reserve asset transparency, user protection, and risk emergency measures are not in place, a trust crisis may still occur.
Hong Kong missed QR code payments not because of technological backwardness, but because it had neither user pain points nor replacement motivation.
III. Can Stablecoins Directly Leap to Success?
It depends on:
1. Whether they are more convenient and cheaper than existing payment methods, covering more scenarios;
2. Whether a usable ecosystem can be quickly built within a compliant framework
Hong Kong missed QR code payments because it had neither user pain points nor replacement motivation. If stablecoins want to skip the QR code era and directly land in life scenarios, they must truly break through user and merchant barriers from both "compliance and experience" dimensions.
