According to ChainCatcher and Jin Shi data, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted. This shift reflects early signs that tariff-related inflation is more moderate than expected, and anti-inflationary forces—including slowing wage growth and weakening demand—are taking shape.
The bank's US Chief Economist David Mericle estimates that the probability of a September rate cut is "slightly above" 50%, anticipating 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with two additional rate cuts in early 2026. Goldman Sachs has also lowered its terminal rate expectation from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25%.
