Ethereum Surpasses $3,000 as Retail Demand Surges; Will the Uptrend Sustain?

Ethereum has finally surpassed the $3,000 mark today, a psychological level it has struggled with for many months. What's noteworthy is what drove this movement; an increase in short-term wallet activity shows that retail investor demand is awakening.

Combined with stable ETF inflows and current structural resistance levels being tested, ETH seems ready for its next big move. The real question is: can this momentum be sustained?

Retail investor demand is increasing and can be clearly seen on-chain

ETH price breaking $3,000 is not just technical; it's behavioral. According to Glassnode's HODL Waves, measuring the percentage of ETH held in different age groups, short-term holders (especially the 1 week–1 month, 1 month–3 month groups, and even 10-year groups) have been steadily increasing in recent days.

This increase indicates rising participation from new wallets, representing retail investor demand.

Compared to the all-time HODL wave chart, where long-term holding groups typically dominate, this sudden increase in short-term groups stands out. It signals a shift towards active trading behavior.

HODL Waves show the time coins remain in wallets. Growth in short-term groups signals renewed activity from retail investors (buying new ETH), while long-term groups represent cold storage and confidence. In ETH's case, it's both.

Wallet clusters could determine the next momentum move

As Ethereum tests the $3,000 zone, In and Out of the Money data provides crucial context about the sustainability of this price increase.

Currently, the largest on-chain wallet cluster lies between $2,237 and $2,523, where millions of addresses are currently in profit. This range serves as the foundation of the current movement, indicating where confidence likely originates. If momentum weakens, this level could serve as strong support, as profitable holders tend to double down rather than sell.

However, at current levels, Ethereum is entering a break-even zone between $2,968 and $3,230. Beyond this, the next red zone of unprofitable holders lies above $3,230, where profit-taking risk increases.

The In/Out of the Money index shows where current ETH investors bought their coins. Clusters represent buyer density areas, typically acting as soft support or resistance depending on sentiment.

The break-even zone Ethereum is currently navigating is where momentum is being tested (the strongest resistance precisely). Clearly breaking it opens the path to $3,500. Losing it, and the price increase risks sliding back to stronger confidence zones around $2,523.

Price and momentum depend on Fibonacci and OBV divergence

Ethereum's recent push above $3,000 brings it to a significant resistance zone; the 0.618 Fibonacci extension, drawn using levels based on the trend from the $1,388 dip, $2,869 peak, and $2,123 correction dip. This sets $3,045 as immediate resistance, and $3,295 (Fib 0.786) as the next ceiling if the price increase holds.

These Fib levels don't stand alone. They closely align with the In and Out of the Money resistance clusters between $2,968 and $3,230, where a large group of ETH investors are at break-even. This convergence reinforces the idea that momentum is being tested here, both technically and in wallet behavior.

Beyond this range, the next target becomes $3,615; the Fibonacci 1 level, but only if momentum is maintained.

However, an important indicator is sending a warning. While ETH price is rising higher, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has not yet surpassed the previous high from the recent peak at $2,890. This divergence suggests that trading volume is not fully supporting the price increase; a classic sign of momentum stalling.

OBV tracks net cumulative volume. If price rises while OBV declines, this typically signals weakening demand or fewer new retail investors entering the market.

A break below $2,693 would confirm the weight of the divergence at the Fib 0.382 level. This would become a technical invalidation point and could push ETH price down to $2,475 or lower.