PANews reported on July 14 that QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto investment institution, stated that Bitcoin's momentum is strong, with prices surging past $122,000, driven by technical breakthroughs and increased institutional demand. The crypto Fear and Greed Index rose from 40 to 70 within three weeks, shifting market sentiment from "fear" to "greed". Institutional investment enthusiasm is high, with spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows exceeding $2 billion last week, indicating improved institutional participation. In the derivatives market, leveraged long positions have significantly increased, with perpetual contract funding rates near 30%, and open interest breaking $43 billion for the first time since January this year.
Bitcoin price has entered uncharted territory, making short-term top prediction difficult. The options market provides clues, with implied volatility not spiking alongside spot price increases, and front-end volatility rising but still below last year's average, reflecting a maturing market, with Ethereum showing similar trends. Traders may prefer using perpetual contracts to express views due to high option costs. The one-month risk reversal indicator remains stable, while September and December indicators show call options supported by buying interest, with investors hedging short-term risks while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. Given high funding rates and lessons from February's liquidations, investors remain cautious. QCP remains structurally bullish on Bitcoin but currently prefers a cautious entry, waiting for a pullback to establish positions.
