PUMP new shares are a sure win, but the airdrop has not yet arrived. Should you long or short now?

avatar
ODAILY
07-15
This article is machine translated
Show original

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210

At 1 AM this morning, the PUMP token, which "filled a $500 million public sale quota in 12 minutes," officially opened for trading. After reaching a high of $0.0061 and then pulling back, it dropped to around $0.0050 before rising again to $0.0059. Despite previous debates about PUMP's valuation and transparency, based on the opening price performance, investors who participated in the public sale at $0.0040 are in a profitable position regardless of when they sell.

It's worth noting that while Binance has not yet listed PUMP spot trading, Binance Alpha has already listed the PUMP token.

Anyone Who Participated in the Public Sale Made Money

"Whether you hedged or bought directly, if you participated in the public sale, you made money."

Although PUMP was still controversial before its official opening, users who participated in the public sale essentially achieved "effortless profitability". Whether they hedged in advance or directly held tokens to speculate on market movements, almost everyone who bought at the public sale price gained significant returns.

KOL 0xSun also shared his entire process of participating in the PUMP public sale: He invested $1.45 million in total and hedged $1 million at $0.0054. If he sells everything at $0.0054, his net profit would be around $500,000. If he waits to cash out at a higher price, his potential earnings could expand further.

Wintermute and DWF Labs Likely Market Makers for Pump.fun

Last night, Pump.fun transferred 13.75 billion PUMP tokens to Wintermute, valued at $5.5 million at the public sale price of $0.0040, currently worth nearly $8 million.

Wintermute received 13.75 billion PUMP tokens

Additionally, DWF Labs received 2.5 billion PUMP tokens from Pump.fun two minutes later, valued at $10 million at the public sale price of $0.0040, currently worth nearly $14.5 million.

DWF Labs received 2.5 billion PUMP tokens

Moreover, regarding previous speculations about exchange quotas, on-chain data shows that "quotas were indeed allocated" before the opening. According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi @ai_9684 xtpa's monitoring, Pump.fun has transferred a total of 20.15 billion tokens to various exchanges:

Gate: 6.41 billion tokens (likely including 2.5 billion from Launchpad);

Bybit: 5 billion tokens;

Suspected Kraken: 7.5 billion tokens;

Address 2XQbX...iNrPm: 1.25 billion tokens.

The last two addresses are yet to be confirmed but are highly likely to be exchange addresses.

When Will the Airdrop Happen?

Those who participated in the public sale at $0.0040 have certainly enjoyed some benefits, but so far, Pump.fun has not issued any clear announcement about PUMP token airdrops to the community, which has left many early participants uncertain.

According to the previously published PUMP token economic model, the total token supply is 1 trillion, with 24% reserved for community and ecosystem plans. Typically, many projects allocate a portion of this allocation for direct airdrops to early interactive users as an incentive before or after token listing.

PUMP Token Economic Model

However, despite PUMP tokens being officially listed for trading, the official team has still not made any clear statements about airdrops. Whether an airdrop will occur, the snapshot timing, distribution standards, or target range, everything is currently in a state of "heard but not seen". The project team's continued silence has left some early users confused and anxious.

From current social media feedback, the Chinese community's criticism of the unannounced airdrop is relatively mild, focusing more on discussing public sale profits. In the English community, doubts, complaints, and disappointment about the airdrop are more concentrated and emotional, with many users questioning whether Pump.fun intentionally keeps airdrop information vague to control fund flow and market expectations, avoiding short-term market volatility or selling pressure. Some even suggest that Pump.fun might intentionally "ghost" the token airdrop.

Meme showing English community's dissatisfaction with Pump.fun's undisclosed token airdrop

Some believe the project team might deliberately delay announcing the airdrop to prevent excessive short-term selling pressure. According to a chat record shared by KOL Tu Shen with Pump.fun co-founder alon: "The airdrop mechanism is already designed and will be announced soon." This suggests that the airdrop is still in the plans, with the timing possibly intentionally delayed to maintain market rhythm and manage expectations.

Chat record with Pump.fun co-founder alon

Overall, whether PUMP will airdrop as expected, the coverage of airdrop recipients, and the transparency of distribution mechanisms will directly impact the community sentiment and trust during the project's initial launch. For many early supporters, the most anticipated thing now is for the project team to provide a clear response soon.

According to Coinglass data, the current PUMP open interest across networks has risen to $790 million, a 35% increase in 24 hours, with a 24-hour contract trading volume of $2.307 billion, a 155% increase. Currently, Binance's contract funding rate is positive, with long positions still aggressively going long. Whether to follow the trend and go long or wait on the sidelines until the heat dies down or FUD sentiment spreads depends on individual risk appetite and trading style.

Additional Reading

PUMP Public Sale Sold Out in 12 Minutes: Which Scenario After Opening, Which One Do You Believe?

Source
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
Add to Favorites
Comments