CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice at most this year

Planet Daily News: CITIC Securities research report points out that the U.S. inflation in June basically continued a "peaceful" state, with core CPI month-on-month growth rate being below expectations for the fifth consecutive month, mainly due to cooling rental inflation and used car prices. The relatively soft core inflation cannot verify the assumption that "tariffs have a minimal impact on inflation". In fact, our constructed tracking indicators such as "CPI with high import content" show that tariffs have initially affected prices of U.S. import-sensitive terminal consumer goods. We still believe that there are potential risks of inflation rebounding in the U.S., the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in July is low, with at most two rate cuts this year, and the space for continued U.S. dollar weakness may be limited, and the current attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds might still not be very strong. (Jinshi)