Although many investors are betting heavily on the Bitcoin scenario of reaching $200,000, the current market probability shows less than a 3% chance of this happening in December this year.
Bitcoin (BTC) traders are focusing on the expiration of a series of options worth $8.8 billion on December 26 at 8:00 AM UTC. Among these, over $1 billion in call options will be "in the money" if BTC price exceeds $200,000. But does this mean they are expecting a 72% price surge?
Currently, the total open interest for call options is $6.45 billion, while put options are at $2.36 billion. These figures reflect the buying side's dominance, though most traders remain quite comfortable with the scenario of Bitcoin staying below $120,000.
Some call options with strike prices of $170,000 and above will lose all value if Bitcoin does not increase by at least 46% from its current level. In fact, if BTC trades around $116,500 on December 26, only about $878 million in call options will retain value at expiration. This indicates that many professional traders use high-strike call options as part of a complex strategy, rather than betting on a 70% price increase by year-end.
One popular strategy is the Diagonal Call Spread, where traders buy a $200,000 call option expiring in December while simultaneously selling a call option with the same strike price but expiring earlier, typically in October.
This strategy yields maximum profit if BTC exceeds $146,000 on October 31, when the long-term option increases in value while the short-term option expires worthless. However, if BTC jumps above $200,000, the strategy could backfire. In this scenario, the maximum loss is 0.005 BTC (about $585 at current prices), while the maximum profit could reach 0.0665 BTC (equivalent to around $7,750).
Another example is the Inverse Call Butterfly, where a trader buys a $140,000 call option, sells two $160,000 call options, and buys an additional $200,000 call option, all expiring in December.
This position yields maximum profit if BTC maintains around $160,000 on December 26, with a profit of 0.112 BTC (equivalent to about $13,050). However, when the price exceeds $178,500, the loss begins to increase, though the $200,000 call option serves as a loss limit. In the worst-case scenario, the maximum loss is 0.109 BTC, or about $12,700.
Therefore, having a large open interest in $200,000 call options does not mean traders genuinely expect Bitcoin to reach this price. In fact, nearly $900 million in put options are placed in the $50,000–$80,000 range for December expiration, indicating that the bearish side is also participating in the market, though the probability of this scenario is lower.
To better reflect market sentiment, call options with a $140,000 strike price are currently trading around 0.051 BTC (about $5,940), corresponding to a roughly 21% probability of reaching the target according to the Black-Scholes model. Meanwhile, $200,000 call options are only at 0.007 BTC (about $814), implicitly suggesting a probability of less than 3%.
Such bold strike prices easily attract attention, but the data tells a different story: traders are not "all in" on the Bitcoin 72% surge scenario. Instead, they utilize out-of-the-money call options as part of structured strategies, limiting risk while opening up significant profit potential.
Unlike Bitcoin options market data, Polymarket shows a higher probability of BTC reaching $200,000 this year, around 13%.
This article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice
