Recently, the market has a notable characteristic: Ethereum shows relatively strong momentum, while most Altcoins are generally weak. It's normal for ETH to pull back by 5%, but many Altcoins directly plummet, with insufficient fund support. This round of market trend actually started from ETH's launch at the end of June, driven by two main factors: Institutions begin to emulate MicroStrategy's model, using crypto-stock financing to purchase ETH; Stablecoin narrative is heating up, and ETH is the related settlement layer and core infrastructure. From the capital flow perspective, these incremental funds mainly flow to ETH and haven't significantly spread to most Altcoins. Referencing MicroStrategy's BTC purchase process in 2020, BTC rose continuously, but most Altcoins didn't outperform BTC. The current situation is similar: institutions and crypto-stock support ETH, but with limited impact on Altcoins. According to CMC, in the Top 200 projects over the past 30 days, only about twenty projects exceeded ETH's gains, mostly event-driven, such as Bonk, Zora, CFX, and ENA. In other words, most Altcoins underperformed ETH. The market currently shows a trend of funds clustering in mainstream assets and severe Altcoin divergence. While there are significant bullish and bearish disagreements, one point is clear: whether in a bull market or consolidation, ETH has obvious funding advantages, and Altcoins have weak resistance to decline. Additionally, global economic linkage with crypto remains evident. US inflation and employment data affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, impacting risk assets' liquidity, including US stocks and crypto. Generally, rising US bond yields and a strong dollar tighten funds, pressuring crypto; conversely, loose liquidity leads to faster crypto rebounds. Geopolitical factors and fund risk aversion also influence the market, such as the rotation between US tech stocks and gold, which reflects on BTC and ETH prices: as risk aversion sentiment rises, BTC is more likely to be seen as "digital gold", weakening Altcoin fund dynamics. From a capital flow perspective, the trend is quite clear: funds first flow from macro to crypto, then from mainstream coins to ecosystem sectors. When ETH drives an uptrend, funds first cluster around Ethereum, then look at L2, infrastructure, or narrative-strong small coins in its ecosystem. However, this spillover process is currently weak, with many Altcoins unable to keep up and even declining. In the Top 200 over the past 30 days, few projects outperformed ETH, mostly relying on positive news. In summary, the current market fund logic moves from large to small, from core to edge, with limited force when reaching the edge. Mainstream coins remain the primary fund choice, and ecosystem sectors and Altcoins need clear positive news or strong narratives to outperform.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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