Realized Profit sees a third massive spike ⚠️ Following up on my previous thread, here’s another update on RUP and Realized Profit. On August 14th, I warned about the risk of a three-phase RUP divergence, and at that time I also mentioned that we hadn’t yet seen a large Realized Profit spike. But this past Saturday—a weekend that should’ve been calm—Realized Profit quietly printed a huge candle‼️ As shown in the chart, the three-phase RUP divergence is now officially confirmed. In the red box at the bottom right, you can see that Realized Profit just printed a significant spike. While it’s not the biggest we’ve ever seen, if we exclude the previous two obvious blowouts, this latest spike is already higher than any weekly print from April to June. If you’ve been following my weekly reports, you’ll recall: From April to June, Realized Profit was basically distributing “mini blowouts” (higher than average but not mega spikes) with clockwork regularity every week. 📝 Let me address a recurring question: “Does a market top always require a huge Realized Profit spike, like before?” First, it’s important to understand the logic behind Realized Profit. Historically, every bull market top has come with a massive Realized Profit spike because “low-cost coins accumulated at the bottom are being distributed en masse.” When these cheap coins get dumped to high-cost buyers—and there’s little new demand—the market is primed for a top (see my pinned post for more details). In previous cycles, the top always lined up with the “second major distribution,” meaning the second round of clustered huge Realized Profit spikes. For this cycle, that second major distribution happened last December, and with other top signals flashing, BTC indeed topped out in January 📉 What’s interesting is that since BTC’s run from 74K, most of the low-cost coins were already sold during those two big distribution waves. If we see another top, logic says this time’s Realized Profit spike will be smaller. So we shouldn’t expect this top to come with the same size of mega spike as before‼️ Has this happened before? Yep—think back to the double top in 2021. I covered the details in the thread below—check out the second section if you’re curious 👇 📖 “Exploring BTC’s Fading Cyclicality through On-Chain Data” x.com/market_beggar/status/191...… Back to now: with BTC’s new high stop hunt (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…), the three-phase RUP divergence, US capital sneaking in, AVIV overheating, and other signals, I’m going out on a limb to say we might be looking at the cycle top right here ⚠️ While I can’t call it with certainty—since the Realized Profit isn’t quite “blowout” level—both TA and on-chain data have me feeling super bearish. For my short/mid-term view, check my technical analysis from last Friday. Whether the stop hunt structure leads to a major expansion, we’ll just have to wait and see…⏳ This is just my personal bias, not financial advice—DYOR 🫡 // 📚 Related resources: On-chain Data 101 (3): Introduction to Realized Profit x.com/market_beggar/status/186...… On-chain Data 101 (9): Introduction to RUP x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… On-chain Data 101 (10): 100% Win-Rate RUP Divergence Top Signal x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… Early 2025: Three-Phase RUP Divergence Top Signal x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… Early 2025: Massive Realized Profit Top Signal x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… 8/15 TA: BTC’s New High Fakeout (Stop Hunt) x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… // 【Alpha plug】 I’m now partnered with Crypto_com exchange 🥳 Crypto_com has an insanely user-friendly feature: soft lockup. Just park your funds in your Crypto_com trading account and earn daily interest—no strings attached. What’s even better? “Open orders” and “unrealized PnL” are also counted towards your interest-earning balance, so you’re basically maxing out your capital efficiency 💰 Interested in signing up? Use my invite link in bio 🔗