貝格先生🐢

貝格先生🐢

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Narrative Trader｜On-Chain Analyst｜Index Investor 📰鏈上週報、教學、分析 ⭐️可以先參觀主頁的 highlight 區以交易為生；已清倉逃頂；無群組商務 TG：@colin_the_beggar 註冊 #Cryptocom 享最高手續費折扣👇

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貝格先生🐢

「USDT Transfer Trend」 Data Update: Signs of a Trend Shift❓ Not sure how many of you remember, but about a month ago, when I first shared my "Mild Bear Scenario," I wrote a series of analyses (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…) explaining why I was willing to go 70% in at 82K. One of my main reasons back then was the "USDT Transfer Trend." So today, I’m back to update you on the latest readings of this indicator 👇 Quick refresher on how this indicator works📝: 🔸 Smooth out the total USDT inflows/outflows to exchanges using a 30-day SMA 🔸 Large USDT inflow = Market is hungry for bottom buys 🔸 Large USDT outflow = Funds are cashing out profits For a more detailed explanation, check the referenced thread below🔗 // Today, I want to share another pattern I’ve noticed with this indicator📊: "Massive green bars" + "Quick shift to red" = Precursor to a trend move Check the attached chart — I’ve circled in black all instances since the 2023 bear bottom where these conditions showed up. It’s clear: Every single time these criteria were met, we saw a solid rally afterward 📈 Same thing happened in 2022-2023: Feb 2022, Jan 2023, Mar 2023, etc. For chart cleanliness, I’ll just mention them here. The logic behind this is pretty straightforward: 1️⃣ Massive green bars 🟩 = Big capital flowing in (see thread below) 2️⃣ Indicator shifts to red 🟥: Because the indicator uses a 30-day SMA, after a huge USDT inflow, those numbers drop out of the average after 30 days, causing the indicator to quickly drop and turn red. Sharp-eyed followers will notice this matches what I’ve said again and again: "Market repair after a big dump usually takes 1-2 months." Translation: 1-2 months after massive bottom-fishing capital flows in, there’s a decent probability of a rally 📈 But heads up ⚠️: This "green-to-red" pattern isn’t a cyclical signal. It’s more of a mid-term swing signal. Classic case: Feb 2022 — Market nuked from 69K to 33K, then the signal appeared, BTC bounced nearly 50% from 33K, but topped again in April, kicking off the next major downtrend. That bounce was later proven to be just a bear market rally. Fast forward to now: The huge bottom-fishing capital from a month ago is definitely bullish for future price action ✅ The indicator turning red suggests we may be at the end of the repair phase. Will we smoothly finish the "Mild Bear Scenario" or is this another bear market rally? No one has a crystal ball. But based on this pattern, at least a legit short-term rally seems likely 🎁 That’s it for today — hope this helps🫡 // 📚 Related Resources Mild Bear Bottom-Fishing Series (All): Summary x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Series (1): BTC Capital Inflow Trend Bottom x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Series (2): US Sell Pressure Eases x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Series (3): Major Capitulation Events x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Series (4): Massive Bottom-Fishing Capital Inflow x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… // 【Ad Time】 If you’re sitting on a bag of stablecoins but don’t feel like buying the dip just yet...💰 Check out Bitget Wallet Onchain Yield: ✅ Long-term APY = 10%, yield from AAVE + Bitget Wallet subsidies ✅ Stablecoin yield (USDC), minimum $1, redeem anytime ✅ Transparent, no re-staking, no circular lending, low risk If interested, register with my invite code👇 Invite code: "3jTNi6" (manual binding required) Plus, Bitget Wallet has launched an exclusive "Mr. Beggar’s Rate Boost Voucher" event🔥 Stack an extra 2~18.8% APY on top of the base 10%! Only 50 vouchers available — DM me if you’re interested🫡 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...

貝格先生🐢

Accumulation in Progress: The Strongest BTC Holders Keep Stacking ⛽️ If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I often talk about a super powerful metric: “The percentage of BTC holders who’ve held for 1 to 3 years 📊.” It’s been two months since my last update, so here’s the latest on this metric. If you’re new here or not familiar with this indicator, check out the explanation below 👇. As shown in the chart: the purple line represents the share of market participants holding BTC for 1-3 years. Before we dive in, let’s recap the core concept of this metric 📝: 🔸 Group BTC holders by holding time 🔸 Focus on those who’ve held for 1-3 years 🔸 Calculate their market share 🔸 If the share drops, it usually means this cohort is selling Looking at the chart, it’s clear this group is a major force in BTC cycles: ➡️ They’re not diamond hands, but real cycle traders who actually buy and sell ➡️ Their share is highly correlated with BTC’s bull/bear cycles ➡️ When their share bottoms out (they finish selling), BTC tops out ➡️ When their share peaks (they finish accumulating), BTC bottoms For a deeper dive, check out my previous article (highly recommended) 🔗: 📖 On-chain data perspective: BTC’s fading cyclicality x.com/market_beggar/status/191...… Back to the main point: although this metric moves slowly, since my last analysis two months ago (quoted below), the trend remains steadily up 🎢 In my article “On-chain data perspective: BTC’s fading cyclicality,” I made a clear prediction about future price action: “If cycles keep fading, could we see more ‘short bottom formations’ before a new rally starts❓” That post was from April. Here’s what’s interesting: Combine this with my recent “Shallow Bear Scenario” (see summary at the end), If the Shallow Bear playbook really works, it could validate my April thesis. In other words, with massive external capital flowing in, the bottom for the 1-3y cohort keeps rising. If the big funds in the market eventually pass the baton, it might mean: We won’t need the 1-3y share to reach historic highs for the next BTC bottom‼️ To put it simply: If BTC escapes the four-year cycle curse and the Shallow Bear scenario plays out, we could break the historic pattern of the “1-3y cohort share.” BTC could bottom out and start a new rally BEFORE the share reaches previous highs 📈 Whatever happens, we’re all witnesses to history... That’s it for today. Wishing everyone a great trading week ahead 🫡 // 📚 Related Reading Cast your vote! 🔥 x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… The second top that lures smart long-term holders to sell x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Shallow Bear Bottom: Extreme deep pullbacks could be gone for good x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Shallow Bear Bottom Series (All): Summary x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Strong Bottom Signals: Stablecoin supply ratio analysis x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Deep Bear Extreme Valuation Update: 100% win rate “iron bottom” x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...

貝格先生🐢

🗞 Beggar On-Chain Weekly Report #56: Patience, Confidence, Determination Today is 12/21, not only the Winter Solstice but also exactly one month since BTC’s sharp dump. Just like I’ve emphasized countless times in the “Shallow Bear Bottom Fishing Series”: After a BTC crash, the typical recovery phase lasts around 1–2 months. Yeah, the chop and sideways grind is painful, but maybe we’re not far from a real trend decision. 📝 The CBD Heatmap has three dimensions: time, price, and amount of coins. Unlike the URPD chart, the CBD Heatmap uses “address-based” data. As usual, here’s a quick update on BTC’s current on-chain distribution: 📝 Two main points today: 1️⃣ Addresses that bottomed at 84–86K in late November, scooping up nearly 1M BTC, still haven’t sold. 2️⃣ There’s a small bag of trapped coins at 92–93K, around 350K BTC. Back in Weekly #53 (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…), I talked about the “massive bottom catchers” emerging. Nearly a month later, this mysterious whale cohort who aped in heavy has yet to dump a single coin. As for the 92–93K bagholders, the CBD heatmap shows they FOMO’d between 12/10–12/12. But the numbers are small, and we’re already seeing capitulation—so these guys shouldn’t be a threat to the next leg up. The recent endless chop is basically a liquidity squeeze. The most important thing now? Sit on your hands and protect your capital. This hellish range won’t last forever—eventually, we’ll get a breakout. If you, like me and the 84–86K bottom fishers, believe BTC is building a base here, then our job is simple: “Stay patient, build confidence, and commit with conviction.🔥” That’s all—thanks for reading the weekly, and happy Winter Solstice! 🍡 As usual, all my “second top escape” analysis threads are in the comments for your reference. // 📚 This Week’s Article Recap Vote for me!🔥 x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… “Bagholder Old Dogs” Latest Data: Have They Capitulated? x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… Deep Bear Extreme Valuation Update: The 100% Win-Rate “Iron Bottom” x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… AVIV Heatmap Update: Is the Green Zone Coming? x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… TMMP Latest Update: The Critical Support Below x.com/market_beggar/status/200...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...

貝格先生🐢

Deep Bear Extreme Valuation Update: A "Solid Bottom" with a 100% Win Rate 🎯 Following the quote below, since I buy the dips at the bottom at 82K (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…），) I have been using various data and metrics to convey my "Shallow Bear Script" concept to everyone. However, given that Asakusa's script is unprecedented, many friends are still worried about the possibility of extensive revisions. Therefore, today I'd like to discuss the "ironclad bottom of a deep bear market" with you all again 👇: twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...

貝格先生🐢

"Give me a minute ⏱️" Hi everyone, Mr. Berg has been doing this for almost a year now! I've consistently written 55 weekly reports and a daily science/market analysis post. Looking back now, time flies. First, thank you all for your support along the way 🙏 Today's content is a little different: I'd like to ask you all for a minute to vote for me 🗳 because I've been shortlisted for the "Top 30 Most Influential People in the Trading Community"! I'm truly flattered. Over the past year, I wouldn't dare say I've done exceptionally well, but I believe I've at least stayed true to my original intentions and consistently shared correct trading concepts. Since Mr. Berg's inception, the market has been quite supportive: ✅ Predicted the market top early in the year and successfully exited at the peak (x.com/market_beggar/status/187...…） ✅ Perfectly predicted and capitalized on ETH's surge in August (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…） ✅ Publicly established a short position in BTC in early July with supporting logic (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…） ✅ Produced numerous free trading tutorials in various series 📚 (quotes below) // Whether it's "Learning On-Chain Analytics," "The Concept of Liquidity," or "Exiting the BTC Top"... Wait, If my content has been of any help to you in the past year, I would appreciate it if you could take a minute to vote for me at the following link 👇: voting.blocktempo.com/nominee/...… There's one vote per day, but I don't expect everyone to vote every day. I'd be happy just to get one vote for me! Thank you all in advance, and I look forward to your continued guidance and working together to create a brilliant future 🏆 // 💬 Just a side note: The following excerpt is from a "Comprehensive Collection of Free Learning Resources" I compiled in September of this year. The content mainly includes: ➡️ A comprehensive tutorial on on-chain analysis concepts ➡️ Trading concept tutorials (risk control, position management, psychology, technical analysis) ➡️ Technical analysis related content (mainly liquidity and stop-hunt concepts) ➡️ Real-world case studies of all past market trends (advance prediction + (Post-event recap) Three months have passed, and many new friends seem unaware of this. Therefore, I'm sharing this again today for those who need it. 🫡 And please vote for me! 💕 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...

貝格先生🐢

AVIV Heatmap Latest Update: Is the Green Zone Coming? ❓ After a month, it’s time for another AVIV Heatmap data update. As BTC’s cycle thermometer, AVIV Heatmap has consistently delivered solid signals. If you’re new to this indicator, check out my previous tutorial 🔗: x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Let’s dive right in 👇 Quick refresher on the AVIV Heatmap core concepts 📊: ➡️ Full name: AVIV Heatmap – a model I personally designed ➡️ AVIV represents “active coins’ profit multiple,” essentially an optimized MVRV ➡️ The Heatmap leverages AVIV’s mean reversion feature ➡️ Concept inspired by the Cointime Economic methodology (by Ark & Glassnode) // As shown in the chart, the AVIV Heatmap color zones currently represent: 🔴 Red: "Above 130,574" 🟠 Orange: "114,381 ~ 130,574" 🟡 Yellow: "81,994 ~ 114,381" 🟢 Green: "65,800 ~ 81,994" 🔵 Blue: "Below 65,800" 💬 Reminder: The numbers are dynamic, not fixed. I’ve said this a few times: Since the bear market bottom, every major retrace in this cycle has NOT triggered the “green 🟩” zone for BTC. A month ago, on 11/21 after I shared the mild bear scenario, BTC dropped to around 80K. But since the Heatmap is based on closing price, the green zone still didn’t show. Compared to last month’s data (see below), the upper bound for green is still around 82K. After last night’s drop during US market hours, BTC is now flirting with the green zone again. With the “recovery phase” now approaching one month and volatility heating up, I expect we’ll soon get more clarity on the next direction❗️ Combining recent signals, including: ➡️ STH-NUPL bottom formation (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…) ➡️ Technicals lacking a clean Stop Hunt (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…) ➡️ TMMP resonating with the green zone (x.com/market_beggar/status/200...…) My personal bias: Next move could be a Stop Hunt targeting the previous low (80.6K on 11/21), then a push higher 📈 If that plays out, expect massive liquidations, clearing out the remaining liquidity below and shaking out the leverage traders. That would be the cleanest, healthiest bottom structure 🔋 Of course, if we break below 80.6K without a Stop Hunt, that’s a completely different story... That’s it for today – hope this helps 🫡 // 📚 More resources: Mild Bear Bottom Playbook: Extreme deep pullbacks may be gone for good x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Mild Bear Bottom Series (Summary): TLDR version x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… No Fear of Deep Bears: Four God-Tier Bottom Fishing Tools Always on Standby x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Strong Bottom Signals: Stablecoin Supply Ratio Deep Dive x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… New Buyers Warming Up: Waiting for “Conviction Buyers” to trigger the upside combo x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… // 【Ad Break】 If you’re sitting on a pile of U but not ready to buy the dip yet...💰 Here’s a solid yield option: Bitget Wallet On-Chain Earn ✅ Long-term APR = 10%, yield from AAVE + Bitget Wallet subsidies ✅ Stablecoin (USDC), deposit from 1U, redeem anytime ✅ Transparent, no rehypothecation, no loop lending — ultra low risk Interested? Register with my invite code below 👇 Invite code: “3jTNi6” (manual binding required) twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...

貝格先生🐢

TMMP Latest Update: Key Support Zone Below 🛡 A month ago, when I first introduced the "Shallow Bear Scenario" (see quoted post below), I shared a unique metric with you all: True Market Mean Price (TMMP). Fast forward a month, and here's the latest data: TMMP hasn't moved much, dropping less than 500 points since then. The current value sits at 81,569 📊. If you're new here and wondering what TMMP is, check the quoted post below for details. Quick refresher for both new and OG followers 📝: ➡️ Formula: (Realized Cap - Thermocap) / (Liveliness x Circulating Supply) ➡️ Basically, after excluding miner holdings, it divides total capital flowing into the BTC market by the active supply ➡️ Excludes "miners" and "long-term dormant/lost" coins for a more accurate read Back to the main point: combining this with my TA from last week (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…), if the shallow bear scenario is going to play out, BTC probably needs to do another stop hunt at the previous low (80.5K)—that classic combo of "breakdown + reclaim + strong Taker Buy" to build a healthier bottom. TMMP is now extremely close to the previous low. If TMMP can flex its support again, it could help complete that stop hunt setup 🔥 💬 Not sure what a stop hunt is? Check this thread for a detailed breakdown: 📖 Live thread proof: How I used liquidity to perfectly predict ETH’s two rallies x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… That's it for now—wishing everyone a smooth trading week ahead, and may all longs get their blessings soon 🫡 // 📚 More resources: Shallow Bear Bottom-Fishing Series (Summary Thread) x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Mr. Beggar Officially Back in the Bull Camp: Bottoming BTC x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Diamond Hands at Highs: The 100K+ BTC Buyers x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Strong Bottom Signals: Stablecoin Supply Ratio Market Analysis x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...

貝格先生🐢

🗞 Beggar On-Chain Weekly #55: Massive 89-93K BTC Accumulation Spotted Today marks day 23 since BTC entered its recovery phase after 11/21, just one week shy of a full month. As volatility keeps tightening, I believe this agonizing chop might finally be nearing its end. As usual, time for your weekly update on BTC’s on-chain distribution. This week’s highlight: Someone’s been quietly stacking in the 89-93K zone 👇 Attached is the URPD chart, showing BTC’s on-chain UTXO distribution. If you want a deep dive into the logic and tutorial for interpreting BTC’s URPD, check this link: x.com/market_beggar/status/196...… Back in Weekly #52 (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…), I pointed out the sudden massive accumulation at 82-85K. Sure, about half of that was Coinbase internal wallet shuffling, but it didn’t change the fact that a huge chunk of BTC was scooped up in that range. Now, it looks like we have a new wave of “mega bottom buyers” stepping in… 👀 As highlighted in red on the chart, the 89-93K zone now holds about 1.354 million BTC—a clear, tight cluster of heavy accumulation. And get this: On 11/21, there were only 511K BTC in that range. That means since the local bottom, about 843K BTC have been bought up in this zone‼️ Flip the perspective: for every buyer, there’s a seller. Normally, dumping 843K BTC would nuke the market, but over the past two weeks, BTC hasn’t seen any dramatic crash. This means there’s a strong bid soaking up all the exit liquidity from high-basis bagholders. Quick reminder for all the bottom fishers out there ⚠️: Heavy URPD stacking in a tight range is bullish for bottom signals, but, as we’ve seen this past year, these big buyers aren’t short-term flippers. Even with this new wave of accumulation, don’t rule out the possibility of another retest or two. Stay disciplined and manage your risk in the short term🔒 That’s it for today’s update—thanks for reading, and have a great weekend! 🍛 As always, I’ll drop links in the comments to all my “second top escape” analysis pieces for those who want to dig deeper. // 📚 Weekly Article Recap: - Strong Bottom Signal: Stablecoin Supply Ratio Analysis x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… - Step-by-Step: STH Cost Basis Trending Lower x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… - STH-NUPL “-0.2” Strikes Again: Bottom Structure Forming x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… - TA Bottom Structure: Is BTC Owed a Stop Hunt? x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… - New Buyers Return: Waiting for “Conviction Buyers” to Trigger the Next Leg Up x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...

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