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貝格先生🐢
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Narrative Trader｜On-Chain Analyst｜Index Investor 📰鏈上週報、教學、分析 ⭐️可以先參觀主頁的 highlight 區 以交易為生；已清倉逃頂；無群組 商務 TG：@colin_the_beggar 註冊 #Cryptocom 享最高手續費折扣👇
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Signal Clone Analysis
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貝格先生🐢
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"Give me a minute ⏱️" Hi everyone, Mr. Berg has been doing this for almost a year now! I've consistently written 55 weekly reports and a daily science/market analysis post. Looking back now, time flies. First, thank you all for your support along the way 🙏 Today's content is a little different: I'd like to ask you all for a minute to vote for me 🗳 because I've been shortlisted for the "Top 30 Most Influential People in the Trading Community"! I'm truly flattered. Over the past year, I wouldn't dare say I've done exceptionally well, but I believe I've at least stayed true to my original intentions and consistently shared correct trading concepts. Since Mr. Berg's inception, the market has been quite supportive: ✅ Predicted the market top early in the year and successfully exited at the peak (x.com/market_beggar/status/187...…） ✅ Perfectly predicted and capitalized on ETH's surge in August (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…） ✅ Publicly established a short position in BTC in early July with supporting logic (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…） ✅ Produced numerous free trading tutorials in various series 📚 (quotes below) // Whether it's "Learning On-Chain Analytics," "The Concept of Liquidity," or "Exiting the BTC Top"... Wait, If my content has been of any help to you in the past year, I would appreciate it if you could take a minute to vote for me at the following link 👇: voting.blocktempo.com/nominee/...… There's one vote per day, but I don't expect everyone to vote every day. I'd be happy just to get one vote for me! Thank you all in advance, and I look forward to your continued guidance and working together to create a brilliant future 🏆 // 💬 Just a side note: The following excerpt is from a "Comprehensive Collection of Free Learning Resources" I compiled in September of this year. The content mainly includes: ➡️ A comprehensive tutorial on on-chain analysis concepts ➡️ Trading concept tutorials (risk control, position management, psychology, technical analysis) ➡️ Technical analysis related content (mainly liquidity and stop-hunt concepts) ➡️ Real-world case studies of all past market trends (advance prediction + (Post-event recap) Three months have passed, and many new friends seem unaware of this. Therefore, I'm sharing this again today for those who need it. 🫡 And please vote for me! 💕 twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
ETH
5.68%
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貝格先生🐢
12-16
AVIV Heatmap Latest Update: Is the Green Zone Coming? ❓ After a month, it’s time for another AVIV Heatmap data update. As BTC’s cycle thermometer, AVIV Heatmap has consistently delivered solid signals. If you’re new to this indicator, check out my previous tutorial 🔗: x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Let’s dive right in 👇 Quick refresher on the AVIV Heatmap core concepts 📊: ➡️ Full name: AVIV Heatmap – a model I personally designed ➡️ AVIV represents “active coins’ profit multiple,” essentially an optimized MVRV ➡️ The Heatmap leverages AVIV’s mean reversion feature ➡️ Concept inspired by the Cointime Economic methodology (by Ark & Glassnode) // As shown in the chart, the AVIV Heatmap color zones currently represent: 🔴 Red: "Above 130,574" 🟠 Orange: "114,381 ~ 130,574" 🟡 Yellow: "81,994 ~ 114,381" 🟢 Green: "65,800 ~ 81,994" 🔵 Blue: "Below 65,800" 💬 Reminder: The numbers are dynamic, not fixed. I’ve said this a few times: Since the bear market bottom, every major retrace in this cycle has NOT triggered the “green 🟩” zone for BTC. A month ago, on 11/21 after I shared the mild bear scenario, BTC dropped to around 80K. But since the Heatmap is based on closing price, the green zone still didn’t show. Compared to last month’s data (see below), the upper bound for green is still around 82K. After last night’s drop during US market hours, BTC is now flirting with the green zone again. With the “recovery phase” now approaching one month and volatility heating up, I expect we’ll soon get more clarity on the next direction❗️ Combining recent signals, including: ➡️ STH-NUPL bottom formation (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…) ➡️ Technicals lacking a clean Stop Hunt (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…) ➡️ TMMP resonating with the green zone (x.com/market_beggar/status/200...…) My personal bias: Next move could be a Stop Hunt targeting the previous low (80.6K on 11/21), then a push higher 📈 If that plays out, expect massive liquidations, clearing out the remaining liquidity below and shaking out the leverage traders. That would be the cleanest, healthiest bottom structure 🔋 Of course, if we break below 80.6K without a Stop Hunt, that’s a completely different story... That’s it for today – hope this helps 🫡 // 📚 More resources: Mild Bear Bottom Playbook: Extreme deep pullbacks may be gone for good x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Mild Bear Bottom Series (Summary): TLDR version x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… No Fear of Deep Bears: Four God-Tier Bottom Fishing Tools Always on Standby x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Strong Bottom Signals: Stablecoin Supply Ratio Deep Dive x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… New Buyers Warming Up: Waiting for “Conviction Buyers” to trigger the upside combo x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… // 【Ad Break】 If you’re sitting on a pile of U but not ready to buy the dip yet...💰 Here’s a solid yield option: Bitget Wallet On-Chain Earn ✅ Long-term APR = 10%, yield from AAVE + Bitget Wallet subsidies ✅ Stablecoin (USDC), deposit from 1U, redeem anytime ✅ Transparent, no rehypothecation, no loop lending — ultra low risk Interested? Register with my invite code below 👇 Invite code: “3jTNi6” (manual binding required) twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
2.45%
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貝格先生🐢
12-15
TMMP Latest Update: Key Support Zone Below 🛡 A month ago, when I first introduced the "Shallow Bear Scenario" (see quoted post below), I shared a unique metric with you all: True Market Mean Price (TMMP). Fast forward a month, and here's the latest data: TMMP hasn't moved much, dropping less than 500 points since then. The current value sits at 81,569 📊. If you're new here and wondering what TMMP is, check the quoted post below for details. Quick refresher for both new and OG followers 📝: ➡️ Formula: (Realized Cap - Thermocap) / (Liveliness x Circulating Supply) ➡️ Basically, after excluding miner holdings, it divides total capital flowing into the BTC market by the active supply ➡️ Excludes "miners" and "long-term dormant/lost" coins for a more accurate read Back to the main point: combining this with my TA from last week (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…), if the shallow bear scenario is going to play out, BTC probably needs to do another stop hunt at the previous low (80.5K)—that classic combo of "breakdown + reclaim + strong Taker Buy" to build a healthier bottom. TMMP is now extremely close to the previous low. If TMMP can flex its support again, it could help complete that stop hunt setup 🔥 💬 Not sure what a stop hunt is? Check this thread for a detailed breakdown: 📖 Live thread proof: How I used liquidity to perfectly predict ETH’s two rallies x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… That's it for now—wishing everyone a smooth trading week ahead, and may all longs get their blessings soon 🫡 // 📚 More resources: Shallow Bear Bottom-Fishing Series (Summary Thread) x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Mr. Beggar Officially Back in the Bull Camp: Bottoming BTC x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Diamond Hands at Highs: The 100K+ BTC Buyers x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Strong Bottom Signals: Stablecoin Supply Ratio Market Analysis x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
2.45%
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貝格先生🐢
12-14
Thread
🗞 Beggar On-Chain Weekly #55: Massive 89-93K BTC Accumulation Spotted Today marks day 23 since BTC entered its recovery phase after 11/21, just one week shy of a full month. As volatility keeps tightening, I believe this agonizing chop might finally be nearing its end. As usual, time for your weekly update on BTC’s on-chain distribution. This week’s highlight: Someone’s been quietly stacking in the 89-93K zone 👇 Attached is the URPD chart, showing BTC’s on-chain UTXO distribution. If you want a deep dive into the logic and tutorial for interpreting BTC’s URPD, check this link: x.com/market_beggar/status/196...… Back in Weekly #52 (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…), I pointed out the sudden massive accumulation at 82-85K. Sure, about half of that was Coinbase internal wallet shuffling, but it didn’t change the fact that a huge chunk of BTC was scooped up in that range. Now, it looks like we have a new wave of “mega bottom buyers” stepping in… 👀 As highlighted in red on the chart, the 89-93K zone now holds about 1.354 million BTC—a clear, tight cluster of heavy accumulation. And get this: On 11/21, there were only 511K BTC in that range. That means since the local bottom, about 843K BTC have been bought up in this zone‼️ Flip the perspective: for every buyer, there’s a seller. Normally, dumping 843K BTC would nuke the market, but over the past two weeks, BTC hasn’t seen any dramatic crash. This means there’s a strong bid soaking up all the exit liquidity from high-basis bagholders. Quick reminder for all the bottom fishers out there ⚠️: Heavy URPD stacking in a tight range is bullish for bottom signals, but, as we’ve seen this past year, these big buyers aren’t short-term flippers. Even with this new wave of accumulation, don’t rule out the possibility of another retest or two. Stay disciplined and manage your risk in the short term🔒 That’s it for today’s update—thanks for reading, and have a great weekend! 🍛 As always, I’ll drop links in the comments to all my “second top escape” analysis pieces for those who want to dig deeper. // 📚 Weekly Article Recap: - Strong Bottom Signal: Stablecoin Supply Ratio Analysis x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… - Step-by-Step: STH Cost Basis Trending Lower x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… - STH-NUPL “-0.2” Strikes Again: Bottom Structure Forming x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… - TA Bottom Structure: Is BTC Owed a Stop Hunt? x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… - New Buyers Return: Waiting for “Conviction Buyers” to Trigger the Next Leg Up x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
2.45%
avatar
貝格先生🐢
12-10
STH-NUPL's "-0.2" indicator proves its worth once again: the formation of the base structure 🏗 Following the quote below, I shared with you all before BTC plummeted to 80K: "Strong support may appear when STH-NUPL reaches -0.2 📈", This was also one of the main factors that led me to propose the Asakusa script. Looking back now, the support level of -0.2 has been confirmed in the short term. However, to truly establish a bottom, there may still be a mile to go...👇: Friendly reminder💬: If you are a new friend, or not yet familiar with STH-NUPL, You can first refer to the quotations below or the links below, which contain detailed explanations of the concepts: 📖 Assessing the short-term bottom of BTC based on the "profit and loss status of short-term holders" x.com/market_beggar/status/198...… Returning to the main topic, in November I shared "STH-NUPL's -0.2", It seems to have been accepted by the market, with BTC rebounding nearly 20% from its low. 🔥 However, today I'm going to talk to you about some of my personal biases from another perspective. As shown in the attached image, in the "purple marked area 🟪": In the past two instances where STH-NUPL reached -0.2 and BTC had completed its bottoming process, We can see that the "structure" of STH-NUPL is tortuous rather than V-shaped. The reason behind it is quite simple: 1️⃣ Prices during the bottoming phase often exhibit "wide fluctuations," causing STH-NUPL to fluctuate accordingly. 2️⃣ Short-term holders (STH) often act as resistance at the start of a trend, therefore a significant shakeout is necessary. Considering the current situation of STH-NUPL, as shown in the attached chart, Currently, STH-NUPL still largely exhibits a "V-shaped rebound" structure. The foundation structure is different from the previous two, showing obvious differences. in other words: If the bottoming structure rhymes again, then perhaps in the short to medium term... We should expect "STH-NUPL to go down again and hit a second and third leg". In other words, "from the perspective of STH-NUPL, BTC still has a need for a second test"‼ In my analysis post on the "Shallow Bear Buy the dips Series" (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…）， I have repeatedly emphasized to everyone that "the recovery period is usually about 1 to 2 months." And now, less than three weeks have passed since the interim bottom on November 21st; Therefore, if you, like me, are looking forward to the success of Asakusa's script, Perhaps a second dip would lead to a healthier bottom structure. In conclusion, if the second visit does occur as scheduled, we simply need to face it calmly and remain patient. 🫡 // 📚 Related Reading Resources: The Assistance of Shallow Bear Script: The Profit and Loss Value of Short-Term Holders Has Approached a Rock Bottom x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Shallow Bear Buy the dips Scenario: Extreme Deep Corrections May No Longer Exist x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Strong bottoming signal in the short term: Analyzing the market from the perspective of stablecoin supply ratio x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… One step at a time: the gradually decreasing average cost of short-term holders. x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
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