Pudgy Penguins Token price is trading near $0.030 at the time of reporting, having dropped over 8% in the past 24 hours. This decline has nearly wiped out monthly gains. The Token has shown a 113% return over the past 3 months, but new sell signals are raising serious questions.
The chart is pointing to a potential revisit to $0.014, and traders are carefully watching what will happen next.
Surge in Exchange Inflows... Smart Money Exodus
According to Nansen's data, Pudgy Penguins' exchange holdings increased by 5.74% this week, reaching 1.607 billion Tokens. This means approximately 87.3 million Tokens entered centralized exchanges, which typically implies a bearish signal suggesting selling pressure.
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Meanwhile, whale holdings decreased by 0.43%, and smart money wallets reduced their exposure by 12.83%, leaving only 136.5 million Tokens. Even wallets associated with notable figures sold, with their balance decreasing by 4.1%.
Only the top 100 addresses saw a 2.01% increase in holdings, currently holding 7.465 billion Tokens, which may indicate internal redistribution rather than net accumulation.
The balance changes so far are clear: high-conviction players are reducing exposure, and exchange supply is increasing.
The 4-hour chart adds weight to the bearish narrative. The 50 EMA or Exponential Moving Average is heading towards a death cross below the 200 EMA, which is often associated with further decline.
Early this week, the 20 EMA had already crossed below the 200 EMA, triggering a 15% Pudgy Penguins price drop from $0.033 to $0.028.
If the 50-200 EMA crossover is confirmed, historical behavior suggests Pudgy Penguins price could experience another decline.
Traders use EMA crossovers to track medium to long-term trend changes. When short-term EMA moves below long-term EMA, it indicates sellers are in control.
Key Support Breakdown, PENGU Price Adjustment Risk
Pudgy Penguins price is currently clinging to support in the $0.028–$0.030 zone on the daily chart's Fibonacci retracement. A break below $0.028 would open a quick drop to $0.027, and if that support doesn't hold, the next visible support is near $0.014.
This represents a potential 53% decline from current levels, which would bring the Token back to pre-rally levels. While nothing is yet confirmed, the bearish crossover and increasing exchange reserves leave little room for bullish optimism in the short term.
Conversely, if Pudgy Penguins price recovers $0.033, the short-term bearish hypothesis could be invalidated. However, this would require the imminent "death" cross to fail and buying momentum to increase.
