Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical and Fundamental Analysis for September 2025

• Technicals show that key support is at $106,080, and a break above $113,810 could trigger a rebound.
• Institutional capital outflows and hacking incidents have caused short-term pressure, but long-term institutional expectations remain optimistic.
• Declining volatility and quantum computing issues could be future price catalysts

BTC Price Prediction

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key Support Level Faces Test

According to current technical indicators, the BTC price is 109,590.01 USDT, below its 20-day moving average of 113,810.11, indicating short-term weakness. The MACD indicator shows continued bullish momentum, but the narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest declining volatility. BTCC financial analyst William noted: "The price is currently testing support at the lower Bollinger Band at 106,080.52. If this level holds, it could rebound to test resistance at the middle band at 113,810.11."

Bitcoin Price

Market sentiment is divided: institutional capital outflows coexist with long-term optimism

Despite JPMorgan Chase predicting Bitcoin could reach $126,000, ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion indicate a cooling of institutional sentiment. Increased hacking attacks and a 54% loss in Metaplanet's strategy have heightened market concerns. BTCC financial analyst William stated, "Increased volatility in September is a normal seasonal phenomenon, and whale profit-taking may create new buying opportunities."

Factors affecting BTC prices

Cryptocurrency markets face downward pressure, Bitcoin tests key support level

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell 3.4% this week to $3.74 trillion, a three-and-a-half-week low. The market capitalization chart has formed a series of lower lows, confirming a bearish trend, and has fallen below the 50-day moving average, further strengthening the trend.

Market sentiment is dominated by fear, with the sentiment index plunging to 39 on Saturday, the lowest level since April. Cryptocurrencies often lead shifts in investor risk appetite, suggesting potential volatility for other risky assets.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $107,000 early Monday, testing its July low. The daily chart suggests BTC is approaching oversold territory, but further downside is possible. The $105,000 mark has become a key support level, having historically served as resistance. A break below this threshold could trigger an accelerated sell-off, pushing the price towards the psychologically important $100,000 level.

Seasonal headwinds are exacerbating technical weakness. September is historically one of Bitcoin's worst performing months, with an average drop of 12.7% over the past 14 years. This pattern has become more pronounced in recent years, although the report does not detail current performance.

Bitcoin dips below $107,500 as September starts with increased volatility

Bitcoin ($ BTC ) began September 2025 with a sharp decline, breaking through the $107,500 support level amidst volatile market conditions. The flagship cryptocurrency traded as low as $107,378.96—a 1.32% drop over 24 hours—and its market capitalization shrank to $2.13 trillion. Weekly performance showed a 4.76% decline, reflecting continued bearish pressure.

Traders faced increasing liquidity pressures, accelerating the sell-off. Long-term holders appeared to be capitulating, despite some anticipating potential macroeconomic catalysts—including speculation about US interest rate policy—that could reverse the decline. Volatility remained the dominant theme, with the recovery outlook dependent on institutional demand and broader risk appetite.

Cryptocurrency hacks surge 15% in August, with major breaches costing $163 million.

Cryptocurrency hackers stole $163 million in August through 16 major attacks, a 15% increase from the $142 million in losses in July. According to PEckShield data, this was the third-worst month for crypto security in 2025, primarily driven by sophisticated social engineering attacks and multi-chain attacks.

On August 19, a Bitcoin holder lost $91.4 million to an attacker impersonating hardware wallet support staff. The stolen 783 BTC were laundered through Wasabi Wallet, a privacy tool designed to obscure transaction traces.

Turkish exchange BtcTurk suffered its second major breach in 14 months, losing $54 million in a coordinated attack on Ethereum , Avalanche, and five other networks. The platform’s cumulative losses have exceeded $100 million following a similar attack in June 2024.

Other victim projects included ODIN•FUN ($7 million), BetterBank.io ($5 million), and CrediX Finance ($4.5 million) — the latter of which apparently fell into an exit scam after its development team disappeared following the attack.

Metaplanet's Bitcoin strategy suffered a setback, sending its stock price plummeting 54%.

Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed company and a major enterprise Bitcoin accumulator, is facing increasing pressure. Its stock price has plummeted 54% since mid-June, despite a 2% increase in BTC over the same period. This decline has jeopardized its "flywheel" strategy, which relies on rising stock prices to fund Bitcoin purchases through MS warrants. CEO Simon Gerovich is now seeking alternative financing options to maintain his ambitious goal of holding 210,000 BTC by 2027.

The company's warrants tied to key investor Evo Fund lost their appeal amid the stock price plunge, limiting liquidity for further Bitcoin acquisition. Metaplanet currently holds 18,991 BTC, ranking seventh among public corporate holders. At press time, its stock price was trading at 879 yen , representing a monthly decline of 23.63%.

JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could surge to $126,000, with volatility hitting record lows

As institutional adoption accelerates, Bitcoin's path to becoming "digital gold" is becoming increasingly viable. JPMorgan Chase's latest analysis shows that BTC's six-month rolling volatility has plummeted from 60% this year to 30%—a historic low that fundamentally changes its investment attributes.

The Wall Street giant's volatility-adjusted valuation model suggests that Bitcoin remains significantly undervalued relative to gold. For BTC to match gold's $5 trillion in private investment, its price would need to reach approximately $126,000 – a 13% upside from current levels.

Corporate treasuries are becoming the new "central banks" of Bitcoin, mimicking the effects of quantitative easing through continued accumulation. This structural shift from a retail-driven to an institutional-led market continues to suppress price volatility, making BTC increasingly attractive to traditional investors.

The Legacy of Hal Finney: The Mysterious Figure Who Could Be Satoshi Nakamoto

Eleven years after his death, Hal Finney remains an integral and pivotal figure in Bitcoin's history. His remains are preserved in liquid nitrogen at a facility in Arizona, awaiting the possibility of future medical breakthroughs leading to his resuscitation. Finney's connection to Bitcoin is undeniable—he received the first Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto himself on January 12, 2009.

In 2009, Finney immediately recognized Bitcoin's revolutionary potential after reading Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper. At the time, the network had only two users: Satoshi and Finney. Today, Bitcoin's market capitalization has surpassed $1 trillion, a stark contrast to its humble origins as an experimental peer-to-peer cash system.

Finney’s contributions to cryptocurrency were interrupted by amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), which gradually paralyzed him and ultimately led to his death in 2014. His decision to undergo cryonics embodies the same visionary thinking that informed his early adoption of Bitcoin.

Gold and silver rose strongly, while Bitcoin faced bearish pressure

Gold continued its upward trend last week, with the spot price breaking through $3,480 per ounce, approaching its all-time high of $3,500 reached in April. The precious metal gained 3.26% during the period. Silver performed even better, breaking through the $40 mark to $40.50, its highest level since September 2011, and rising 4.2% for the week. However, the current silver price remains 22% below its 2011 peak of nearly $50.

Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Asset Management and a prominent Bitcoin critic, took advantage of the market to weigh in. He said on social media, "This is where things start to get interesting," noting Bitcoin's drop below $108,000 during the same period. "Breakouts in gold and silver are very negative for Bitcoin," Schiff asserted, citing the negative correlation between the two asset classes. Bitcoin was trading at $107,793, having previously hit a July low of $107,300 and down 13% from its all-time high of $124,470 in mid-August.

The economist reiterated his consistent view: "Bitcoin will only rise when gold falls or consolidates." Schiff maintains a bullish stance on both precious metals and recognized silver's potential in June. Market observers have noted the inverse trend between cryptocurrencies and traditional safe-haven assets, although Bitcoin's volatility remains a prominent feature.

Bitcoin ETF outflows exceed $1 billion, institutional sentiment cools

Bitcoin is facing increasing downward pressure as spot ETFs have seen outflows of more than $1 billion for four consecutive days. The outflows reflect waning confidence among institutional investors, who previously poured $6 billion into the cryptocurrency in July, pushing it to a record high of $122,054.

On-chain data also confirms this bearish shift. The long-to-short ratio currently stands at 0.93, indicating that more traders are short the cryptocurrency than supporting it. This stands in stark contrast to the bullish holdings that had previously driven price increases.

The retreat of institutional funds has created resistance for Bitcoin's short-term price trend. Market observers point out that if the outflow of funds continues at the current pace, the support level of $111,000 may soon be tested.

Babylon acquires ATA for $100 million, pioneering the concept of Bitcoin interest-earning

The Babylon Foundation has officially entered the traditional market with the acquisition of Nasdaq-listed education technology company ATA Creativity Global for $100 million. The transaction, which includes $30 million in newly issued shares and $70 million in warrants, makes ATA the first publicly traded company to generate Bitcoin revenue through the Babylon protocol.

This Stanford University-initiated project has received investments from institutions such as PA Radagm and Binance Labs, and its total value locked (TVL) has exceeded $5 billion mainnet. ATA's transformation extends beyond the typical corporate Bitcoin holding strategy. The company will actively stake BTC and Baby tokens through Babylon's trustless protocol, creating a novel hybrid of open market and crypto-native yield strategies.

Market observers noted that despite the technological innovations of the BA ylon mainnet, the market response has been muted in the month since its launch. The ATA acquisition represents an unconventional attempt at mainstream adoption, combining enterprise finance with Bitcoin's evolving utility as a productive asset.

Musk to open source Grok 2 AI model, quantum computing, Bitcoin issues draw attention

Elon Musk's xAI announced that it will open source its GROK 2 language model next week, continuing the company's practice of releasing code for previous versions as they become available. This move paves the way for the July 9th release of Grok 4, which is said to surpass its predecessor in multimodal capabilities and reasoning performance.

The AI ​​arms race continues to heat up, with Grok 4 reportedly outperforming Op ENA I's GPT-4o and Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro in intelligence benchmark tests. Musk's open-source philosophy contrasts sharply with the proprietary strategies of his competitors, sparking debate about strategic positioning in the AI ​​field.

Notably, Elon Musk’s recent speculation that quantum computing could potentially crack Bitcoin’s encryption adds cryptographic relevance to these developments. The intersection of advanced AI and blockchain technology continues to reshape both fields.

Bitcoin whale takes profit after four years and deposits 50 WBTC to Binance

Large Bitcoin holders who built up their positions during the previous bull run are beginning to take profits, signaling a strategic exit after years of holding. On August 6th, on-chain analysts discovered a whale deposited 50 WBTC (worth $5.71 million) to Binance . If sold in full, they would have realized a profit of $2.885 million, based on their initial cost of $56,410.89 per BTC.

The entity, which is suspected of selling 100 WBTC (worth $11.44 million) the previous day, currently holds 88,253 WBTC, suggesting a phased exit strategy. This move underscores how long-term holders are realizing profits after Bitcoin rebounded from an 80% drop and doubled its value.

How high can the BTC price go?

Based on current technical analysis and market sentiment, BTCC financial analyst William believes: "Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $106,000 and $114,000 in the short term. If it breaks through the 20-day moving average resistance, it is expected to test the upper Bollinger Band of $121,500. JPMorgan Chase's $126,000 target requires the return of institutional funds."